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作者：Brugues, Felipe; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Mei, Yuan; Robles, Pablo
作者单位：Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Singapore Management University; The Brattle Group
摘要：This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants' output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a de...
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作者：Garcia-Schmidt, Mariana
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile
摘要：Central bank policy decisions shape the economy both by influencing market conditions and by affecting expectations. These expectations can be driven by two simultaneous shocks: monetary and information shocks. Identifying the information shock as one with a non-negative effect on expectations, this paper shows that such shocks are highly relevant in emerging markets. In particular, inflation and output forecasts tend to increase in the short run following an unexpected rise in the policy rate...
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作者：Kurmann, Andre; Lale, Etienne; Martin, Julien
作者单位：Drexel University; York University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code & times; industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment decline...
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作者：Minesso, Massimo Ferrari; Krahnke, Tobias; Mehl, Arnaud; Vansteenkiste, Isabel
作者单位：European Central Bank; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the global impacts of sanctions on central bank assets. We build a database on freezes and seizures of central bank assets spanning 1914-2024. We show that the scale of the freeze on today's Central Bank of Russia's assets is rarely seen in history and that non-belligerent countries have never seized central bank assets to finance reconstruction in a third country in an ongoing war. We propose a three-country DSGE model to understand the global impacts of sanctions on central bank ass...
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作者：Krolikowski, Pawel M.; McCallum, Andrew H.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We study tariffs in a general equilibrium dynamic model with search frictions between heterogeneous exporting producers and importing retailers. We show the model has a unique equilibrium and analytically characterize home unilateral import tariffs that maximize welfare given a passive foreign country. Search frictions add two terms to the standard optimal tariff expression: One lowers tariffs when contact rates are low; another when private export costs exceed social opportunity costs. Search...
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作者：Gurkova, Ekaterina; Helpman, Elhanan; Itskhoki, Oleg
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Trade liberalization triggers substantial within-sector labor reallocation, a pattern captured by heterogeneous-firm trade models. We study transition dynamics of firms and workers response to changes in trade costs, incorporating labor market frictions. Responses vary by productivity: high-productivity exporters expand employment, while lower-productivity firms exit, downsize before exit, or gradually shrink. As a result, jobs with similar initial wages differ ex post, with high-productivity ...
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作者：Coelli, Federica
作者单位：European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; University of Zurich
摘要：This paper analyzes the effect of resolving trade policy uncertainty on innovation in China from 1990 to 2007. Exploiting exogenous and heterogeneous exposure to the elimination of U.S. tariff uncertainty, together with detailed innovation data, the analysis shows that reducing tariff uncertainty generated economically and statistically significant increases in innovation. This increase represents actual innovation, and not just more patent filings. The timing of the response is heterogeneous:...
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作者：Acosta-Henao, Miguel; Alfaro, Laura; Fernandez, Andres
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Inter-American Development Bank; International Monetary Fund
摘要：With a new quarterly dataset on the intensive margin of priced-based capital controls, complemented with extensive measures (restrictions, prohibitions, and authorizations) constructed using text analysis, we document that capital controls are sticky. Changes to price-based controls do not occur frequently; and when they do, they display high autocorrelation. Extensive measures also show considerable persistence. We then augment a model of capital controls relying on pecuniary externalities wi...
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作者：Qiu, Shumin; Steinwender, Claudia; Azoulay, Pierre
作者单位：East China University of Science and Technology; University of Munich; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We investigate the phenomenon of home bias in scientific citations, where researchers disproportionately cite work from their own country. We develop a benchmark for expected citations based on the relative size of countries, defining home bias as deviations from this norm. Our findings reveal that China exhibits the largest home bias across all major countries and in nearly all scientific fields studied. This stands in contrast to the pattern of home bias for China's trade in goods and servic...
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作者：Miotto, Martina; Pascali, Luigi
作者单位：University of Padua; Luiss Guido Carli University; Barcelona School of Economics; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The chronometer, one of the greatest inventions of the modern era, allowed for the first time for the precise measurement of longitude at sea. We examine the impact of this innovation navigation and urbanization. Our identification strategy leverages the fact that the navigational benefits provided by the chronometer varied across different sea regions depending on the prevailing local weather conditions. Utilizing high-resolution data on climate, ship routes, and urbanization, we argue that t...
