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作者：Guler, Bulent; Onder, Yasin Kursat; Taskin, Temel
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Ghent University; Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper studies debt and default dynamics under alternative disclosure arrangements in a sovereign default model. The government can access both observable and hidden debt. We show that when debt is not fully disclosed, the government does not internalize the full effects of hidden debt choices on bond prices, thereby reducing the cost of holding hidden debt. We find that switching to a full disclosure regime shifts the portfolio from hidden to observable debt, exacerbating the debt dilutio...
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作者：Frankel, Jeffrey; Rey, Helene
作者单位：Harvard University; University of London; London Business School
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作者：Minetti, Raoul; Romanini, Giacomo; Ziv, Oren
作者单位：Michigan State University; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：International lending flows are often intermediated through banking hubs and complex multinational routing. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where global banks choose the path of direct or indirect lending through partner institutions in multiple countries. We show how conflating locational loan flows with ultimate lending biases results both by attributing ultimate lending to banking hubs, and by missing ultimate lending that occurs indirectly via third countries. We ...
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作者：Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Kang, Elliot; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya; Toma, Hiroshi; Topalova, Petia
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Yale University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We adopt a data-driven approach to measure trade decoupling over 2015-2023. Countries are classified into three groups according to changes in their data-inferred trade costs with the US and China: those shifting toward the US bloc, those shifting toward the China bloc, and those with no change in alignment. We document that while cross-bloc trade costs rose, they were accompanied by falling within-bloc trade costs, with average trade costs falling marginally in line with global trade resilien...
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作者：Lam, Pak Hung; Lin, Yatang; Peng, Fangyuan; Wang, Jin
作者单位：National Taiwan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Fudan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：The recent decades have witnessed a remarkable surge in machinery imports from China to African economies. Our study examines the causes and local implications of these imports. Notably, we find that China's efforts to decommission excess capacity have been a driving force behind this trend. Chinese city industries that face urgent capacity elimination requirements imposed by the government tend to export machinery equipment to emerging markets, particularly African countries with weaker envir...
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作者：Ali, Nesma; Stiebale, Joel
作者单位：The World Bank; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf
摘要：This paper uses a rich panel dataset of Indian manufacturers to analyze the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic firms. Detailed product-level information on prices and quantities allows us to estimate physical productivity and marginal costs. In line with the previous literature, we find little evidence of horizontal spillovers based on commonly used measures of revenue productivity. In contrast, we measure sizable efficiency gains using measures that are not affected by pri...
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作者：Wu, Wenbin; You, Wei
作者单位：Peking University; Fudan University
摘要：In a system of cities model that incorporates urban externalities, equilibrium city sizes deviate from optimal city sizes, which suggests a role for government intervention. Using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates agglomeration benefits and costs and that is calibrated to data from China between 2000 and 2020, we show that it is generally welfare-reducing to control city sizes through internal migration restrictions since the frictions they introduce outweigh the benefits of co...
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作者：Chen, Kaiji; Huang, Yuxuan; Liu, Xuewen; Lu, Zhikun; Wang, Yong
作者单位：Emory University; University of International Business & Economics; University of Hong Kong; Peking University
摘要：Many emerging economies employ preferential credit policies that target selected sectors. This paper quantifies the implications of such policies for aggregate productivity and welfare. Using Chinese firm-level data from 2009-2020, we first document that sectors with higher markups receive larger credit subsidies and exhibit higher revenue-based productivity. Motivated by these facts, we develop a multi-sector quantitative model with endogenously determined markups and calibrate it to match th...
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作者：Roesch, Marcus; Gerritse, Michiel; Karreman, Bas
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Do workers in multinational enterprises (MNEs) build stronger CVs? We track the careers of all workers entering the Dutch labor market over the years 2006-2021 and find large, portable wage premia of MNE employment experience. Workers with experience at MNEs instead of domestic firms earn up to 14% higher wages within the MNE, and up to 11% higher wages after moving to another firm. Consistent with a model of MNEs that leverage their employment experience premia, we document that MNEs hire mor...
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作者：Meyer, Timothy
作者单位：University of Bonn; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：U.S. equity outperformance and sustained dollar appreciation have led to large valuation gains for the rest of the world on the U.S. external position. I construct their global distribution, carefully accounting for the role of tax havens. Valuation gains are concentrated and large in developed countries, while developing countries have been mostly bypassed. To assess the welfare implications of these capital gains, I adopt a sufficient statistics approach. In contrast to the large wealth chan...
