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作者：Choi, Jaedo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies how lobbying affects welfare gains from trade in a second-best world. I develop an open economy model of heterogeneous firms that can lobby to influence firm-specific distortions. As trade costs decline, exporters increase lobbying due to the complementarity between market size and lobbying benefits, impacting allocative efficiency, firm entry, and consequently gains from trade. I estimate the model using an IV strategy and indirect inference with US firm-level data. Gains f...
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作者：Carballo, Jeronimo; Graziano, Alejandro G.; Schaur, Georg; Martincus, Christian Volpe
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; University of Nottingham; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We estimate import processing costs based on the time it takes to import. To do so, we first develop a theoretical model that extends existing time-cost measures to account for uncertainty in import processing. Second, we use detailed, highly disaggregated data on import processing dates and import values to provide estimates of processing costs that are consistent with the theory. This evidence indicates that our extensions to time-cost estimates are economically relevant to determining proce...
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作者：Drechsel, Thomas; McLeay, Michael; Tenreyro, Silvana; Turri, Enrico D.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bank of England; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We show that the optimal monetary and exchange rate frameworks depend critically on the economy's commodity exposure. We develop a flexible but tractable model economy with commodity exports and imports, in which international financial conditions depend on the commodity cycle. Stabilizing domestic prices is optimal for commodity exporters, in line with standard open-economy policy prescriptions. But when economies import commodities as production inputs, optimal policy largely 'looks through'...
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作者：Mitra, Devashish; Pham, Hoang; Marchand, Beyza Ural
作者单位：Syracuse University; Oregon State University; University of Alberta
摘要：Using eight rounds of the Vietnam Household Living Standards Surveys spanning 16 years and exploiting the US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) in 2001, we investigate the impact of this large export shock on intergenerational occupational mobility. The BTA has, on average, led to greater upward absolute occupational mobility among sons and daughters, with effects following roughly a U-shape by age for sons and an inverse-U for daughters. However, relative occupational mobility, inversely...
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作者：Lin, Ming-Jen; Wang, Yi-Ting; Wu, Sung-Ju
作者单位：National Taiwan University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：This paper studies how liberalizing outward foreign direct investments affects manufacturers' engagement in global production and their domestic workers' labor market outcomes. Focusing on a liberalization policy in 2001 by the government of Taiwan that allowed 122 electronic products to be produced in China, we estimate its effect on Taiwanese electronic manufacturers and their domestic workers. Employing a matched difference-in-differences strategy, we find that the manufacturers targeted by...
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作者：Solleder, Jean-Marc; Silvy, Fulvio; Olarreaga, Marcelo
作者单位：University of Geneva
摘要：Estimates of Grossman and Helpman (1994) Protection For Sale (PFS) model yield unrealistically high estimates of the weight governments put on social welfare relative to lobbying contributions. Estimates of the former are often close to 1. We argue this is due to the level of aggregation at which the model is estimated. While protection is determined at the tariff line level, production data are only available at the industry level. Using a new production dataset at the tariff level, our estim...
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作者：Na, Seunghoon; Xie, Yinxi
作者单位：Korea University; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：This paper studies exchange rate dynamics and excess currency returns by incorporating bounded rationality into a small open-economy New Keynesian model. Decision-makers have limited foresight, planning only up to a finite horizon and approximating continuation values with coarse value functions learned from past experiences. This behavior generates an initial underreaction, followed by an overreaction in beliefs, leading to dynamic overshooting of exchange rate forecast errors. Moreover, the ...
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作者：Benguria, Felipe; Novy, Dennis
作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Kentucky; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) leveraging a unique policy experiment. In 2023, amid a dollar shortage, Argentina expanded a currency swap line with China. The share of imports from China invoiced in RMB surged rapidly, displacing the dollar, which had previously accounted for virtually all invoicing. Following the presidential election of late 2023, as the dollar shortage eased, invoicing in RMB declined. We explore the mechanisms behind this pattern, using fir...
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作者：Ascari, Guido; Bonam, Dennis; Mori, Lorenzo; Smadu, Andra
作者单位：University of Pavia; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We investigate the relationship between fiscal policy and inflation dynamics in the Euro Area, with a focus on the post-pandemic inflation surge. Using a structural vector autoregression identified via sign restrictions, we disentangle the effects of various demand-and supply-side shocks, including fiscal policy, on inflation. First, while both positive demand and adverse supply shocks contributed to the inflation surge, demand shocks were relatively more important. Second, fiscal stimulus pla...
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作者：Davidson, Carl; Heyman, Fredrik; Matusz, Steven; Sjoholm, Fredrik; Zhu, Susan Chun
作者单位：Michigan State University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：This paper explores the impact of international experience on worker mobility, with a focus on Swedish companies acquired by foreign multinationals. We posit that international experience, by imparting knowledge about foreign operations, enhances an employee's appeal to multinational enterprises (MNEs). By matching acquired firms with comparable control firms and using a stacked difference-in-differences methodology, we observe a significant impact of foreign acquisitions on job mobility. Our ...
