-
作者：Chen, Yao; Ward, Felix
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：This paper presents empirical evidence for the violation of nominal exchange regime neutrality. We find that fixing the exchange rate is associated with real output losses among countries with a high pre-peg inflation rate. In particular, ten years after fixing the exchange rate a country with a +1 percentage point (ppt) pre-peg wage inflation differential has a 2% lower real GDP per capita level and a 1% lower TFP level. The tradable sector is more affected than the non-tradable sector, which...
-
作者：Huennekes, Franziska; Konradt, Maximilian; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph; Wingenbach, Julian
作者单位：European Central Bank; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：Germany is a world champion in exporting capital (Exportweltmeister). Few countries have invested larger amounts of savings abroad. However, we show that Germany plays in the third division when it comes to investment performance. We construct a comprehensive new database of foreign investment returns for 13 advanced economies going back to the 1970s. Germany's foreign returns were 2 to 5 percentage points lower, per year, than those of comparable countries. Germany also earns significantly le...
-
作者：Wochner, Timo; Hack, Lukas; Potrafke, Niklas
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：What inflation rate should central banks target? Using two global surveys, we provide evidence on inflation preferences among economic experts-the group whose models and judgments inform monetary policy. We document that, although experts' preferred inflation rates are centered on central-bank targets, roughly half of them deviate (symmetrically) from the target. Cross-expert heterogeneity in preferences is driven by (i) beliefs about the costs of disinflation, (ii) normative views on the rela...
-
作者：Chen, Fanghao; Xiong, Ruichi; Zhang, Xiaobo
作者单位：Jinan University; Wuhan University; Wuhan University; Peking University; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
摘要：This paper shows that diaspora networks played a pivotal role in directing early foreign investment to Chinese locations with weaker institutions and in catalyzing long-run industrial development. Using an administrative dataset of all foreign firms in China, we document that the post-1979 surge in foreign entry was led by diaspora firms whose legal representatives were overseas Chinese; large non-diaspora inflows arrived mainly in the late 1990s. Leveraging the staggered rolling-out of openin...
-
作者：Bas, Maria; Fontagne, Lionel; Iodice, Irene; Orefice, Gianluca
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); heSam Universite; Paris School of Economics; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne; University of Bielefeld; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine
摘要：This paper investigates the role of firms' managerial skills in the heterogeneous reaction of exporters to common exogenous changes in their international competitiveness (here captured by changes in the real exchange rate). Relying on a simple theoretical framework, we show that firms with better managerial skills have higher profits, market power and are able to adapt their markup more when faced with a competitiveness shock. We test this prediction relying on detailed firm-product-destinati...
-
作者：Sobiech, Anna L.; Kgari, Lechedzani; Nguyen, Linh; Wilson, John O. S.
作者单位：University of Cologne; University of St Andrews
摘要：Do parent bank implicit guarantees enhance or diminish the stability of foreign subsidiaries? Using a quasi-natural experiment in the form of a regulatory intervention which removed parent banks' option to provide financial support to affiliated foreign subsidiaries, we find a substantial increase in the overall default risk of foreign subsidiaries. Less stringent private and supervisory oversight in host countries exacerbates the adverse impacts on risk. Overall, the results align with the no...
-
作者：Norris, Jordan J.
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：In the presence of scale economies, industries are incentivized to localize production. Geography is key in determining where that localization happens. The Home Market Effect (HME) predicts that locations with the largest demand are the host and become net exporters. Yet, since its origin by Krugman (1980), the prediction has only been shown to hold in two-location models, therefore questioning its generality and empirical relevance. I offer a new formalization of the HME, provide succinct, s...
-
作者：Devereux, Michael B.; Dong, Wei; Tomlin, Ben
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Bank of Canada
摘要：Using highly-disaggregated transaction-level trade data, we document the importance of new firm-level trade partner relationships and the addition of new products to existing relationships in driving aggregate trade flows. Moreover, we find that these margins are sensitive to movements in the exchange rate and that larger firms are substantially more responsive in terms of both the number of trade partners and products. These findings are then rationalized in a model of international trade wit...
-
作者：Gibson, Erin P.; House, Christopher L.; Proebsting, Christian; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; KU Leuven
摘要：Unemployment rates are substantially higher and more volatile in the euro area relative to the United States. We ask to what extent the lack of cross-country labor mobility can account for unemployment dynamics in Europe. Our analytical model incorporates downward nominal wage rigidity and an endogenous migration decision. Firms are unable to freely adjust wages during economic contractions, generating an asymmetric distribution of unemployment over the business cycle. The model is calibrated ...
-
作者：Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：How do U.S. monetary tightening shocks affect emerging market economies, and how does the impact depend on these economies' own macroeconomic vulnerabilities? We examine this question in a model that combines financial frictions with imperfect anchoring of inflation expectations, a key vulnerability in emerging markets. The degree of anchoring is disciplined using evidence that inflation expectations in emerging markets respond significantly to inflation surprises. Imperfect anchoring amplifie...
