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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Kalantzis, Yannick; Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We build a two-country heterogeneous-agent non-Ricardian model featuring asset scarcity and financial frictions in international capital markets. Due to the non-Ricardian nature of our framework, a demand for liquidity emerges and the supply of bonds matters. We show that shocks affecting the supply or demand of assets have very different international spillovers for an economy in a liquidity trap. A decrease in the supply of assets issued abroad leads to an asset shortage domestically. In nor...
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作者：Kim, Daisoon; Lee, Sunhyung
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Montclair State University
摘要：This paper examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in host and competing countries reshapes U.S. multinationals' greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI). Using firm-destination level data from 2003 to 2021, we show that while host-country EPU deters investment, EPU in competing destinations attracts it through a spillover effect. We document a structural shift around 2015: as global EPU rose unevenly, the spillover effect from competitors became the dominant driver of investment deci...
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作者：Cavalcanti, Tiago; Ogeda, Pedro; Ornelas, Emanuel
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil's labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets. Following higher Brazilian exports to China, our findings reveal that regions more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US exports experienced a relative increase in formal employment and wage bills. In contrast, American tar...
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作者：Allen, Cian; Bems, Rudolfs; Boer, Lukas; Moussa, Racha
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：US dollar appreciations can inflict sizable negative cross-border spillovers. We investigate such spillovers from flight-to-safety shocks and the accompanying global dollar cycle. Our results show that negative real sector spillovers from US dollar appreciations fall disproportionately on emerging markets. In contrast, effects on advanced economies are small and short-lived. Emerging market commodity exporters historically experienced larger negative spillovers than commodity importers, reflec...
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作者：Meneses, Oscar; Menna, Lorenzo; Tobal, Martin
作者单位：Bank of Mexico
摘要：On January 7, 2025, Argentina's EMBI spread plunged by over 114 basis points. J.P. Morgan later revealed that the decline was due to a technical error, creating a rare natural experiment-an exogenous shift in sovereign risk pricing. Because this error was neither anticipated nor related to Argentina's fundamentals or global conditions, the experiment provides a unique setting to identify the information effect, whereby investors update their beliefs in response to noisy signals embedded in pri...
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作者：Che, Yi; Lin, Donglin; Zhang, Yan
作者单位：East China University of Science and Technology; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a ...
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作者：Fuchs, Andreas; Kaplan, Lennart; Kis-Katos, Krisztina; Leue, Sebastian; Turbanisch, Felix; Wang, Feicheng
作者单位：University of Gottingen; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Helmut Schmidt University; University of Groningen
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic dramatically heightened global demand for critical medical goods, with China being a key supplier. This paper examines the political factors that eased global access to face masks, a vital product during the initial phase of the pandemic. Employing a triple difference-in-differences event study framework, we compare the export dynamics of face masks with those of similar products. Our findings indicate that face mask prices surged after the outbreak of the pandemic, and C...
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作者：Ma, Chang; Rebucci, Alessandro; Zhou, Sili
作者单位：Fudan University; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Chinese portfolio equity outflows grew significantly over time due to capital account liberalization. Using matched stock-fund holding data under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) program, we identify a nascent financial channel of international transmission of Chinese monetary policy to world stock markets. Event studies around monetary policy announcement days uncover a cross-sectional differential impact: returns on MSCI indexes and U.S. stocks with QDII exposure are more...
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作者：Liu, Qing; Luo, Wenlan; Niu, Jiatong
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Policies aimed at promoting currency internationalization often target frictions in both capital and current account transactions. We study this two-pronged approach using a dynamic general equilibrium model in which an international currency serves as both a store of value and a medium of exchange. Due to the complementarity between different functions of an international currency, a two-pronged approach is more effective than policies with a single focus. We analytically characterize this po...
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作者：Bastos, Paulo; Stapleton, Katherine; Taglioni, Daria; Wei, Hannah Yi
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper examines how multinational firms and global value chain linkages facilitate the crosscountry diffusion of emerging technologies. Leveraging detailed data on online job postings across 17 countries and multinational firm linkages from 2014 to 2022, we analyze the propagation of jobs related to emerging technologies through firm networks. Our findings reveal that emerging technology jobs are highly concentrated within multinational firms and their supply chains, with nearly one-third ...
