Is the information channel of monetary policy alive in emerging markets?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garcia-Schmidt, Mariana
• 署名单位: Central Bank of Chile
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104297
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: federal-reserve information

摘要

Central bank policy decisions shape the economy both by influencing market conditions and by affecting expectations. These expectations can be driven by two simultaneous shocks: monetary and information shocks. Identifying the information shock as one with a non-negative effect on expectations, this paper shows that such shocks are highly relevant in emerging markets. In particular, inflation and output forecasts tend to increase in the short run following an unexpected rise in the policy rate. This pattern can be reconciled with baseline New Keynesian models only if the policy rate gives information about shocks that generate a positive co-movement between the interest rate, inflation, and output. The findings suggest that information shocks are an important part of monetary policy surprises.