-
作者：Jo, Yoon Joo
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：I examine the cyclical properties of nominal wage change distributions across time and US states using nationally representative household surveys from 1979 to 2018. The novel finding is that the share of workers with no wage changes, which accounts for the large spike at zero in the nominal wage change distribution, is more countercyclical than the share of workers with wage cuts. I analyze heterogeneous agent models with six alternative wage-setting schemes and conclude that the model with d...
-
作者：Imbierowicz, Bjoern; Nagengast, Arne; Prieto, Esteban; Vogel, Ursula
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank; Deutsche Bundesbank; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We examine the effects of a deglobalization shock on bank lending, firm internal capital markets, and the real economy. Leveraging a unique dataset, we are able to observe both domestic and cross-border credit exposures of German banks as well as internal capital market dynamics within multinational corporations (MNCs). We analyze the response to the Brexit referendum shock. On average, banks reduced lending to United Kingdom (UK) firms following the shock due to increased uncertainty about fu...
-
作者：Acharya, Sushant; Challe, Edouard
作者单位：University of Melbourne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Paris School of Economics
摘要：We study optimal monetary policy in a tractable Small Open Economy Heterogeneous-Agent New Keynesian (SOE-HANK) model in which households face uninsured idiosyncratic risk and unequal bond-market access. We derive conditions under which optimal policy in our SOEHANK economy entails domestic producer price stability, extending the open-economy divine coincidence result of Gal & iacute; and Monacelli (2005) beyond the Representative-Agent benchmark (SOE-RANK). Away from those conditions, ineffic...
-
作者：Velasquez, Agustin
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. If workers have preferences such that income effects outweigh substitution effects, then a welfare-improving response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure time. Using a multi- country Ricardian trade model, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity that is composed by the wage (Marshallian) and trade elasticities. I estimate the hours-to-trade elasticity by exploiting exogenous income variation gen...
-
作者：Camara, Santiago
作者单位：McGill University
摘要：This paper quantifies the international spillovers of U.S. interest rates by accounting for the Fed Response to News channel. Using the identification strategy of Bauer and Swanson (2023a), we decompose monetary policy surprises into two components: a pure U.S. monetary policy shock and a Fed Response to News component around FOMC meetings. I find that a U.S. monetary tightening driven by pure policy shocks causes a global recessions, exchange rate depreciation, and tighter financial condition...
-
作者：Lee, Annie Soyean; Engel, Charles
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We identify the liquidity channel through which Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) quantitative tightening (QT) affect capital flows to emerging markets. Using weekly data on Fed's purchases and sales of long-term U.S. Treasury securities, we find that large purchases to a significant increase in capital flows to emerging markets, and that sales have the reverse effect. We then show that QE lowers, and QT raises, the convenience yield on U.S. Treasuries, measured by covered interest pari...
-
作者：Ilabaca, Francisco E.; Mann, Robert; Mulder, Philip
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury; Office of Financial Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We use regulatory data on the foreign claims and liabilities of global banks with U.S. operations to study how multinational lenders respond to large natural disasters abroad. Our difference-in-difference estimates show that, on average, international banks do not increase their lending to countries after destructive disasters that should increase the demand for funds. Consistent with information frictions, our results show that post-disaster lending is higher among banks with foreign affiliat...
-
作者：Cai, Sheng; Xiang, Wei
作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We develop a tractable growth model to study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of multinational production (MP) across countries. In this framework, MP serves as the channel of international idea diffusion: when firms operate in a foreign country, they contribute to the local stock of knowledge. By embedding this mechanism into a quantitative model of trade and MP, we characterize the evolution of bilateral MP flows, trade flows, and technology dynamics across 54 economies. Counterfactual anal...
-
作者：Marczinek, Max; Maurer, Stephan; Rauch, Ferdinand
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Edinburgh; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Konstanz; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg; University of St Gallen
摘要：We study trade networks following the decline of the Hanseatic League, using a novel trade data set that covers cities and captains in Northern Europe over 190 years. By the time of its dissolution in 1669, trade on former Hansa routes is within predictions from a gravity framework. However, the Hansa continue to shape the composition of trade: Trade between cities in the Hanseatic network continues to be facilitated by Hanseatic captains for centuries. Our paper highlights the long-run stabil...
-
作者：Dosis, Anastasios
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; Universite Bourgogne Europe
摘要：This paper studies how the real interest rate affects the (mis)allocation of capital in a small open economy characterized by asymmetric information in the financial market. Low interest rates allow low-productivity firms to enter the pool of borrowers, imposing an information externality that negatively impacts highly productive firms and forces them to reduce their investments. This suggests that, in some cases, although lowering the interest rate can increase total investment and output, it...
