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作者：Behrens, Kristian; Kichko, Sergei; Ushchev, Philip
作者单位：University of Quebec; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Trento; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：When and how are sector-specific price shocks magnified or dampened in general equilibrium with multiple industries and distortions? We develop a general framework with homothetic sectoral preferences and derive a welfare multiplier, which is a sufficient statistic for the share of the direct effect of the shock that materializes in the aggregate. We show that the combination of Cobb-Douglas or CES preferences with monopolistic competition always yields welfare gains from a positive shock. How...
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作者：de Soyres, Francois; Fuchs, Simon; Kondo, Illenin O.; Maghin, Helene
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We develop a framework to assess how economic shocks affect local labor markets and worker welfare, with a focus on city-level economic diversity. Using detailed worker flow data across cities, sectors, and occupations, we construct theory-consistent welfare measures. Our approach combines a dynamic discrete choice model with a dual representation that captures both direct effects and the insurance value of local economic diversity. Applied to French labor markets, we find that diversification...
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作者：Marchesi, Silvia; Marcolongo, Giovanna
作者单位：University of Milano-Bicocca; Bocconi University
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between financial crises in developing countries and variation of bank deposits in offshore financial centers. Using a stacked difference-in-differences estimator, we find that three years after the onset of the crisis, bank deposits in tax havens increase by almost 30 percent. The effect appears independent of tax rates and is primarily driven by countries with weak institutions. We add to the literature on tax havens as we find that they not only faci...
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作者：Noghanibehambari, Hamid
作者单位：Austin Peay State University
摘要：This paper investigates the relationship between regional exposure to trade liberalization under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and infant health outcomes in the U.S., focusing on differences in impact across areas with varying levels of import competition. I explore this question by implementing event studies and difference-in-difference regressions that compare birth outcomes of infants born in different years relative to NAFTA and localities with differential exposure to im...
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作者：Bergholt, Drago; Friis, Inga Nielsen; Furlanetto, Francesco; Matsen, Kristine Aunvag; Robstad, Orjan
作者单位：Norges Bank
摘要：This paper examines the international dimension of the post-pandemic inflation surge. We estimate an extended structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model for Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States to disentangle domestic and foreign drivers of inflation. Foreign supply and demand shocks are identified through novel restrictions on import prices and trading-partner output, consistent with a simple New Keynesian model featuring firm-to-firm trade in intermediate inputs. Our ...
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作者：Baslandze, Salome; Fuchs, Simon
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Monash University
摘要：We study how supply chain disruptions shape consumer prices. We develop a simple model showing how disruptions that cause delivery delays affect pricing through product availability, beyond standard cost pass-through, and extend it to include strategic interactions across firms. Empirically, we construct a novel micro-level dataset linking shipment-level U.S. import records from Bills of Lading to granular consumer prices from the Numerator panel. Using delivery shortfalls, port congestion, an...
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作者：Chau, Vu; Conesa-Martinez, Marina; Kim, Taehoon; Spray, John
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the inflationary effects of pandemic lockdown shocks and fiscal and monetary stimulus over 2020-22 using a novel harmonized dataset covering producer prices and input-output linkages for 1254 country-industry pairs across 55 countries. Our identification strategy employs a Bartik shift-share design, where country-industry shares capture the heterogeneous exposure to each shock. The results show that pandemic lockdowns-and the subsequent reopening policies-were the dominant drivers of ...
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作者：Shen, Binchao
作者单位：Fudan University
摘要：Building on a unified accounting framework for value-added trade, this paper introduces a method for quantifying the paths in global value chains (GVCs) using inter-country input-output tables, which evaluates the indirect linkages between two countries through a third-party intermediary. The GVC path index identifies the hub-and-spoke structure within GVC networks and refines the concept of GVC exposure. We apply this index to detect recent shifts in global value chains following the U.S.-Chi...
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作者：Esquivel, Carlos; Samano, Agustin
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We study fiscal rules in a sovereign default model with private capital accumulation and long-term debt. Their adoption strengthens public finances and increases long-run income by mitigating two distortions: debt dilution and underinvestment. In the short run, however, the economy experiences a costly transition where consumption and investment drop to finance debt reduction. To study this tradeoff, we calibrate the model to Argentina and evaluate three rules: a debt limit, a deficit limit, a...
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作者：Firooz, Hamid; Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：North Carolina State University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We study the implications of trade uncertainty for reshoring, automation, and U.S. labor markets. Rising trade uncertainty creates incentives for firms to reduce exposure to foreign suppliers by moving production and distribution processes to domestic producers. However, we argue that reshoring does not necessarily bring jobs back to the home country or boost domestic wages, especially when firms have access to labor-substituting technologies such as automation. Automation improves labor produ...
