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作者：London, Melina; Silvestrini, Maeva
作者单位：European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; European Central Bank; Universite PSL; Bank of France; Universite Paris-Dauphine
摘要：This paper provides empirical evidence on the impact of US monetary policy surprises on firm- to-firm trade credit in emerging markets, using a proprietary firm-level database. We show that trade credit acts as a buffer against the adverse effects of US monetary tightening, which, by constraining global financial conditions, increases reliance on trade credit as an alternative financing source. This effect is more pronounced for buyers with poor credit quality, who are primarily affected when ...
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作者：Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Skiba, Alexandre; Terner, David
作者单位：Indiana University Bloomington; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Wyoming
摘要：We assess the expected impact of the upcoming International Maritime Organization's CO2 emissions cap on global maritime shipping. Using detailed data on U.S. imports-covering vessels, routes, emissions, and trade-we estimate a model that allows for substitution between maritime, air, and land transport. Our findings show that the cap will drive a shift to more carbon-intensive air and land transport, leading to an overall increase in transportation-related CO2 emissions in both the short- and...
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作者：Christensen, Jens H. E.; Mirkov, Nikola N.; Zhang, Xin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：Through large-scale asset purchases, widely known as quantitative easing (QE), central banks around the world have affected the supply of safe assets by buying quasi-safe bonds in exchange for truly safe reserves. We examine the pricing effects of the European Central Bank's bond purchases in the 2015-2021 period on an international panel of bond safety premia from four highly rated countries: Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and Switzerland. We find statistically significant negative effects for all...
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作者：Le Moigne, Mathilde; Lepot, Simon; Ritel, Marcos; Simon, Dora
作者单位：University of Zurich; Kuhne Logistics University; Universitetet i Stavanger
摘要：We use a quantitative international trade model with climate policies to explore the distributional effects of carbon pricing across countries. Our analysis addresses two key questions facing global climate action: which countries bear the greatest burden of climate policies, and how these policies can be designed to ensure fairness. We present three main findings. First, efficient climate policies that disregard distributional concerns significantly exacerbate between-country inequality. Seco...
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作者：de Groot, Oliver; Durdu, C. Bora; Mendoza, Enrique G.
作者单位：University of Southampton; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We compare global (fixed-point iteration) and local (first-order, higher-order, risky-steady-state, and quasi-linear) solutions of open-economy incomplete-markets models. Cyclical moments of a workhorse endowment model are broadly in line with the data and similar across solutions calibrated to the same data targets, but impulse responses and spectral densities differ. Alternative local solutions yield nearly identical results. Calibrating them requires nontrivial interest-rate elasticities th...
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作者：Poilly, Celine; Tripier, Fabien
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa; Universite Paris-Dauphine
摘要：Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We build a two-region open-...
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作者：Wicht, Adrien
作者单位：University of Basel
摘要：This paper studies official multilateral lending in the sovereign debt market. Official multilateral debt receives priority in repayment, even though this is not legally required. It represents an important portion of total sovereign debt and increases both before and during a default. Defaults on official multilateral debt are infrequent, last relatively longer and are associated with greater private lenders losses. I develop a model with private and official multilateral lenders where the la...
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作者：Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Ruhl, Kim J.; Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Toronto
摘要：We model trade policy as a Markov process. Using a dynamic exporting model, we estimate how expectations about U.S. tariffs on China have changed around the U.S.-China trade war. We find (i) no increase in the likelihood of a trade war before 2018; (ii) the trade war was initially expected to end quickly but its expected duration grew substantially after 2020; and (iii) the trade war reduced the likelihood that China would face Non-Normal Trade Relations tariffs in the future. Our findings imp...
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作者：Solis, Pavel
作者单位：Bank of Mexico
摘要：This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy transmits to the sovereign yields of emerging markets without ignoring credit risk. To quantify the effects, I first identify different types of surprises in U.S. monetary policy using intraday data, and then propose a novel (three-part) decomposition of emerging market yields that accounts for credit risk. I find that surprises in U.S. monetary policy lead to a reassessment of policy rate expectations and a repricing of interest rate and credit risk...
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作者：Han, Lu
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Exporters frequently change their set of destination markets. This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the underlying drivers of changes in exporters' market decisions over time. The approach exploits information on price and quantity changes in firms' continuing markets to disentangle the micro shocks that drive firms' market changes. Applying the method to customs data from China (2000-2006) and the UK (2010-2016), I find consistent results showing that most firm-and firm-product-le...
