When neighbors stop knocking: The impact of Canada's 2025 tourism decline on US local labor markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kurmann, Andre; Lale, Etienne; Martin, Julien
• 署名单位: Drexel University; York University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104269
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: IRAQ WAR; sales

摘要

We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code & times; industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment declines of about 6% compared to less exposed ones. Our estimates imply between 13,900 and 42,100 jobs lost, concentrated in a small number of localities.