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作者：Fan, Jingting; Li, Lei
作者单位：University of Gottingen
摘要：Imported capital goods, which embody skill-complementary technologies, can increase the supply of skills in developing countries. Focusing on China and using a shift-share design, we show that city-level capital goods import growth increases the local skill share and that both skill acquisition and migration play a role. We develop and quantify a spatial equilibrium model with these two mechanisms to examine the aggregate effects of capital goods imports, accounting for trade and migration lin...
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作者：Romero, Damian
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile
摘要：This paper studies the role of input-output (IO) linkages in the propagation of commodity price shocks. We present empirical evidence documenting a positive correlation between commodity prices and GDP that decreases in the intensity of production linkages between the commodity sector and the rest. In a model for a small open economy, stronger linkages reduce the demand for inputs by the commodity sector, dampening the response of real GDP after a positive commodity price shock. A calibrated v...
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作者：Bricongne, Jean-Charles; Carluccio, Juan; Fontagne, Lionel; Gaulier, Guillaume; Stumpner, Sebastian
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; University of Surrey; Paris School of Economics
摘要：Using monthly firm-level exports and imports over 1993-2020, we uncover four facts: (i) deviations of large exporters from the average growth rate explain a large share of aggregate fluctuations; (ii) an important source for these deviations is the top exporters' higher loadings on common shocks; (iii) the stronger reaction of the top 1% exporters to the GFC and Covid crises contributed to the export collapses; (iv) a higher elasticity to large demand shocks, not a different exposure to global...
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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Bastos, Paulo; Lee, Eunhee
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers' choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mob...
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作者：Allen, Cian; Juvenal, Luciana
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：This paper constructs a dataset on the currency composition of external balance sheets for 50 countries from 1990 to 2020. Our findings reveal the persistent dominance of the US dollar and euro in global external positions, while many emerging markets have shifted from short to long foreign-currency exposures. This transformation, marking a departure from the original sin phenomenon, reflects reduced foreign-currency debt liabilities and increased foreign-currency assets. We introduce financia...
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作者：Bergin, Paul R.; Kim, Kyunghun; Pyun, Ju H.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hongik University; Korea University
摘要：This paper finds that one-sided nominal exchange rate intervention in the form of fear of appreciation slows adjustment of current account surpluses, providing novel support for Friedman's claims of faster adjustment under flexible exchange rates. We find evidence that countries classified as more flexible have faster convergence than peggers for current account deficits, but not so for surpluses. This asymmetry is associated with a one-sided muting of exchange rate appreciations among some co...
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作者：Ignatenko, Anna; Lashkaripour, Ahmad; Macedoni, Luca; Simonovska, Ina
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; University of Milan; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：On April 2, 2025, President Trump declared Liberation Day, announcing broad tariffs to reduce trade deficits and revive U.S. industry. We analyze the long-term economic impacts of these tariffs. If trading partners do not retaliate, the tariffs could decrease the U.S. trade deficit and improve its terms of trade, yielding modest welfare gains when tariff revenues reduce the income tax burden for American workers. However, reciprocal retaliation results in net welfare losses for the U.S. econom...
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作者：Beqiraj, Elton; Cao, Qingqing; De Haas, Ralph; Minetti, Raoul
作者单位：Sapienza University Rome; Michigan State University; European Bank of Reconstructon & Development; KU Leuven; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study how the organizational structure of global banks shapes their impact on macroeconomic stability. We develop a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model in which global banks can either delegate loan monitoring to local affiliates or exert control over affiliates' monitoring activities, hiring loan officers centrally. Moreover, we allow global banks to transfer liquidity between parents and local affiliates through internal capital markets. We show that global banks with a centrali...
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作者：Altomonte, Carlo; Morlacco, Monica; Sonno, Tommaso; Favoino, Domenico
作者单位：Bocconi University; University of Southern California; University of Bologna; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Erasmus University Rotterdam
摘要：We show that short-term liquidity can be a source of competitive advantage by enabling firms to invest in intangible assets. Our analysis leverages a French reform that capped payment delays in trade credit contracts, which generated quasi-experimental variation in corporate liquidity across manufacturing firms. Higher liquidity led to significantly greater investment in intangibles, which, in turn, raised markups and market shares. These results suggest a strategic role for liquidity in shapi...
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作者：Alder, Simon
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine
摘要：India and China followed different strategies in the design of their recent highway networks. India first focused on connecting the four largest economic centers of the country, the Golden Quadrilateral, while China had the explicit strategy of connecting intermediate-sized cities. This paper analyzes the aggregate and distributional effects of transport infrastructure in India based on a general equilibrium trade framework. I compare the effect of the Golden Quadrilateral to a counterfactual ...
