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作者：Berge, Travis J.; Jorda, Oscar
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We ...
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作者：Guerrieri, Luca; Gust, Christopher; Lopez-Salido, J. David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We develop and estimate an open economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in which variable demand elasticities give rise to movements in desired markups in response to changes in competitive pressure from abroad. A parametric restriction yields the standard NKPC under constant elasticity and no role for foreign competition to influence domestic inflation. Foreign competition plays an important role in accounting for the behavior of traded goods price inflation. Foreign competition accounted...
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作者：Philippon, Thomas
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：I study the allocation of human capital in an economy with production externalities, financial constraints, and career choices. Agents choose to become entrepreneurs, workers, or financiers. Entrepreneurship has positive externalities but requires the services of financiers. In the second best solution, the financial sector should be taxed in exactly the same way as the nonfinancial sector When direct subsidies to investment and scientific education are not feasible, subsidizing the financial ...
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作者：Cogley, Timothy; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：New York University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We estimate vector autoregressions with drifting coefficients and stochastic volatility to investigate whether US inflation persistence has changed. We focus on the inflation gap, defined as the difference between inflation and trend inflation, and we measure persistence in terms of short- to medium-term predictability. We present evidence that inflation-gap persistence increased during the Great Inflation and that it fell after the Volcker disinflation. We interpret these changes using a dyna...
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We argue that the threat of automation weakens workers' bargaining power in wage negotiations, dampening wage adjustments and amplifying unemployment fluctuations. We make this argument based on a business cycle model with labor market search frictions, generalized to incorporate automation decisions. In the model, procyclical automation threats create endogenous real wage rigidity that amplifies labor market fluctuations. The automation mechanism is consistent with empirical evidence. It is a...
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作者：Fernandes, Ana M.; Klenow, Peter J.; Meleshchuk, Sergii; Pierola, Martha Denisse; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
作者单位：The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; Inter-American Development Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In benchmark trade models that feature a constant trade elastic-ity, bilateral exports vary entirely on the intensive margin (exports per firm) or entirely on the extensive margin (number of firms). Our empirical analysis documents that roughly one-half of this variation occurs along each margin, implying that the trade elasticity is not constant. We estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint log-normal distribution for firm productivity, fixed costs, and demand shifters. Using exact-hat...
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作者：Neiman, Brent; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Over the last 15 years, individual households have concentrated their spending on a few preferred products. However, this is not driven by superstar products capturing larger market shares. Instead, households increasingly purchase different products from each other. As a result, aggregate spending concentration has decreased. We develop a model of heterogeneous household demand and use it to conclude that increasing product variety drives these divergent trends. When more products are availab...
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作者：Kim, Gwangmin; Binder, Carola
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Haverford College
摘要：When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibil-ity that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these learning-through-survey effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants gener-ally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat partici-pants may be more informed about or...
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作者：Maestas, Nicole; Mullen, Kathleen J.; Powell, David
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; RAND Corporation; Rand Health
摘要：Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employ-ment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in ...
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作者：Commault, Jeanne
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. ...
