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作者：Kim, Hee Soo; Matthes, Christian; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We investigate the impact of severe weather shocks on the US macroeconomy over the past 60 years. Using a nonlinear vector autoregressive model, we find robust evidence of time-varying effects. While negligible at the beginning of the sample, the impact becomes significant at the end, where an increase in the severe weather index reduces aggregate industrial production and consumption growth rates, and raises aggregate unemployment and inflation rates. The effects are persistent for up to 20 m...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Feenstra, Robert C.; Inklaar, Robert
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Groningen
摘要：We use the structure of the Melitz (2003) model to compute the cost of living and welfare across 47 countries, and compare these to conventional measures of prices and real consumption from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). The cost of living is inferred without directly using ICP prices of traded goods and instead relying on output prices, openness, domestic trade costs, and product variety measured by the counts of barcodes or firms. We find that welfare relative to the United Sta...
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作者：Qi, Ji; Tang, Xin; Xi, Xican
作者单位：Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning; Wuhan University; International Monetary Fund; Fudan University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics
摘要：We argue that misallocation across firms amplifies industrial water pollution by distorting the firm size distribution in China. Firm-level data indicate that larger firms are more likely to use clean technology but face higher distortions. In a heterogeneous firms model with an endogenous choice of pollution treatment technologies, we show that distortions that increase with firm-level TFP lower the adoption of clean technology, amplify aggregate pollution intensity, and lower aggregate outpu...
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作者：Leduc, Sylvain; Liu, Zheng
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We show that cyclical fluctuations in search and recruiting intensity are quantitatively important for explaining the weak job recovery from the Great Recession. We demonstrate this result using an estimated labor search model that features endogenous search and recruiting intensity. Since the textbook model with free entry implies constant recruiting intensity, we introduce a cost of vacancy creation, so that firms respond to aggregate shocks by adjusting both vacancies and recruiting intensi...
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作者：Flaaen, Aaron; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Sorkin, Isaac
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Prior literature has established that displaced workers suffer persistent earnings losses by following workers in administrative data after mass layoffs. This literature assumes that these are involuntary separations owing to economic distress. This paper examines this assumption by matching survey data on worker-supplied reasons for separations with administrative data. Workers exhibit substantially different earnings dynamics in mass layoffs depending on the reason for separation. Using a ne...
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作者：Barany, Zsofia L.; Siegel, Christian
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); University of Kent
摘要：We document that job polarization-contrary to the consensushas started as early as the 1950s in the United States: middle-wage workers have been losing both in terms of employment and average wage growth compared to low-and high-wage workers. Given that polarization is a long-run phenomenon and closely linked to the shift from manufacturing to services, we propose a structural change driven explanation, where we explicitly model the sectoral choice of workers. Our simple model does remarkably ...
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作者：Cloyne, James; Huertgen, Patrick
作者单位：Bank of England; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy based on a new, extensive real-time dataset for the United Kingdom. Employing the Romer-Romer identification approach we construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations and find that a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate reduces output by 0.6 percent and inflation by up to 1 percentage point after 2 to 3 years. Our use of forecast data is shown to be crucial and that their omission generates the well-known price puzzle. Our ...
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作者：Wulfsberg, Fredrik
作者单位：Oslo Metropolitan University (OsloMet)
摘要：This is the first paper documenting the frequency and size of price adjustments using micro data from both the high-inflation period in the 1970s and 1980s, and the period of low inflation since the early 1990s. When inflation is high and volatile, prices change more frequently and in smaller magnitudes. When inflation is low and stable, prices change less frequently but in larger magnitudes. The frequency of price changes is more important for the variation in inflation when inflation is high...
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作者：Gaballo, Gaetano
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：This paper studies the social value of information about the future. In a stylized OLG model, agents need to forecast the future price level, they observe the current price and perceive with idiosyncratic noise the expectation announced by a more informed authority. When forward guidance communication is loose, the market becomes a main source of information about the future. Reliance on market information amplifies the impact of shocks on prices, which increases ex ante uncertainty and worsen...
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作者：Bayer, Christian; Juessen, Falko
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of Wuppertal
摘要：We reassess the empirical effects of income and employment on self-reported well-being. Our analysis makes use of a two-step estimation procedure that allows us to apply instrumental variable regressions with ordinal observable data. As suggested by the theory of incomplete markets, we differentiate between the effects of persistent and transitory income shocks. In line with this theory, we find that persistent shocks have a significant impact on happiness while transitory shocks do not. This ...
