-
作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We use responses to survey questions in the 2010 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth that ask consumers how much of an unexpected transitory income change they would consume. The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is 48 percent on average. We also find substantial heterogeneity in the distribution, as households with low cash-on-hand exhibit a much higher MPC than affluent households, which is in agreement with models with precautionary savings, where income risk plays an important...
-
作者：Chahrour, Ryan
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：This paper models the tradeoff, perceived by central banks and other public actors, between providing the public with useful information and the risk of overwhelming it with excessive communication. An information authority chooses how many signals to provide regarding an aggregate state and agents respond by choosing how many signals to observe. When agents desire coordination, the number of signals they acquire may decrease in the number released. The optimal quantity of communication is pos...
-
作者：Berriel, Tiago C.; Bhattarai, Saroj
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We explain why international nominal bonds and equity portfolios are biased domestically. In our model, holding domestic government nominal debt provides a hedge against shocks to bond returns and the impact on taxes they induce. For this result, only two features are essential: nominal risk and taxes only on domestic agents. A third feature explains domestically biased equity holdings: government spending falls on domestic goods. Then, an increase in government spending raises the returns on ...
-
作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：While the degree of policy inertia in central banks' reaction functions is a central ingredient in theoretical and empirical monetary economics, the source of the observed policy inertia in the United States is controversial, with tests of competing hypotheses, such as interest-smoothing and persistent-shocks, being inconclusive. This paper employs real time data; nested specifications with flexible time series structures; narratives; interest rate forecasts of the Fed, financial markets, and ...
-
作者：Chari, Anusha; Henry, Peter Blair; Sasson, Diego
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Brookings Institution
摘要：For three years after the typical emerging economy opens its stock market to inflows of foreign capital, the average annual growth rate of the real wage in the manufacturing sector increases by a factor of three. No such increase occurs in a control group of countries that do not liberalize. The temporary increase in wage growth drives up the level of the average worker's annual compensation by US $487-an increase equal to nearly one-fifth of their annual pre-liberalization salary. Overall, th...
-
作者：Krane, Spencer D.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric mo...
-
作者：Cuba-Borda, Pablo; Singh, Sanjay R.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：We develop a theoretical framework that rationalizes two hypoth-eses of long-lasting low-interest rate episodes: deflationary-expectations-traps and secular stagnation in a unified setting. These hypotheses differ in the sign of the theoretical correlation between inflation and output growth that they imply. Using the data from Japan over 1998:I-2019:IV, we find that the data favor the expectations-trap hypothesis. The superior model fit of the expec-tations trap relies on its ability to gener...
-
作者：Foley-Fisher, Nathan; Gorton, Gary; Verani, Stephane
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Privately produced safe debt is designed so that there is no adverse selection in trade. But in some macro states-here, the onset of the pandemic-it becomes profitable for some agents to produce private information, and then agents face adverse selection when they trade the debt (i.e., it becomes information sensitive). We empirically study these adverse selection dynamics in a very important asset class, collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which finance loans to below -investment -grade f...
-
作者：Parodi, Francesca
作者单位：Collegio Carlo Alberto; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; University of Turin
摘要：I quantitatively characterize optimal consumption and labor income taxes in a structural life-cycle model of household consumption, sav-ing, and employment choices that allows for irreversibility of dura-ble goods and preference heterogeneity. I find that durables should be subsidized and nondurables should be taxed at a uniform rate. The durable subsidy is driven by the life-cycle features of the model together with durables' irreversibility and borrowing constraints. Uniform taxation on nond...
-
作者：Debacker, Jason; Panousi, Vasia; Ramnath, Shanthi
作者单位：University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia; Universite de Montreal; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We employ a large panel of US income tax returns for the period 1987-2018 to extensively characterize and quantify business income risk. Our findings show business income to be much riskier than labor income. Business income is less persistent and is characterized by higher tail risk. Furthermore, when compared to labor income, heterogeneity across households is less important in explaining the cross-sectional variation in business income, and within-household income variation is more importan...
