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作者：Bils, Mark; Kaymak, Baris; Wu, Kai-jie
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite de Montreal; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Given worldwide trends in education, wage premium for schooling, and real GDP, we derive a lower bound for the long-run elasticity of labor substitution across schooling groups of around 4, which is far higher than values commonly used in the literature. We exploit our bound to reexamine the importance of human capital in cross-country income differences, including the roles of school quality versus the skill bias of technology in the greater efficiency gains from schooling in richer countries...
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作者：Brumm, Johannes; Feng, Xiangyu; Kotlikoff, Laurence; Kubler, Felix
作者单位：Helmholtz Association; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Xiamen University; Boston University; University of Zurich
摘要：Is deficit finance free when real borrowing rates are routinely lower than growth rates? Specifically, can the government make all generations better off by perpetually taking from the young and giving to the old? We study this in stochastic closed- and open-economy OLG models. Unfortunately, Pareto gains are predicted only for implausible calibrations. Even then, the gains reflect improved inter- generational risk sharing, improved international risk sharing, and beggaring thy neighbor-not in...
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作者：Su, Hsuan-Li
作者单位：National Central University
摘要：I study how input-output linkages amplify the aggregate impact of sectoral financial distortions in a dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous capital wedges. The aggregate impact of a shock can be decomposed into weighted productivity changes and changes in allocative efficiency. A systematic uncertainty shock induces heterogenous responses in sectoral capital wedges , reducing allocative efficiency and aggregate total factor productivity ( TFP ) . However , idiosyncratic sectoral un...
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作者：Rozsypal, Filip; Schlafmann, Kathrin
作者单位：Danish Finance Institute; Copenhagen Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Using microlevel data, we document systematic forecast errors in household income expectations that are related to the level of income. We show that these errors can be formalized by a modest deviation from rational expectations, where agents overestimate the persistence of their income process. We then investigate the impli-cations of these distortions on consumption and savings behavior and find two effects. First, these distortions allow an otherwise fully optimization-based quantitative mo...
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作者：Dew-Becker, Ian; Giglio, Stefano
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper presents a novel and unique measure of cross-sectional uncertainty constructed from stock options on individual firms. Cross-sectional uncertainty varied little between 1980 and 1995 and subsequently had three distinct peaks-during the tech boom, the financial crisis, and the coronavirus epidemic. Cross-sectional uncer-tainty has had a mixed relationship with overall economic activity, and aggregate uncertainty is much more powerful for forecasting aggregate growth. The data and mom...
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作者：Almgren, Mattias; Gallegos, Jose-Elias; Kramer, John; Lima, Ricardo
作者单位：Stockholm University; Banco de Espana; Stockholm University; University of Copenhagen
摘要：In 2016, 30 percent of households in Germany reported that they could not meet an unexpected, immediate expense of 985 euros. At the same time, 40 percent of Italian households reported that they would be unable to meet an unexpected expense of 800 euros.1 Figures like these suggest that a significant portion of households hold few liquid assets, which potentially makes them vulnerable to unexpected shocks to the economy. These households have received special attention recently, especially in...
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作者：Blandin, Adam; Herrington, Christopher
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; Virginia Commonwealth University
摘要：From 1995 to 2015 the aggregate US college completion rate increased almost 50 percent, but completion trends differed markedly by family background. We consider whether changing college preparedness contributed to growth in aggregate completion and differences by family background. We first document parallel empirical trends in precollege investments, college preparedness, and completion. We use these moments to discipline a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital investment wit...
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作者：Eeckhout, Jan; Lindenlaub, Ilse
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; University of London; University College London; Yale University
摘要：The labor market by itself can create cyclical outcomes, even in the absence of exogenous shocks. We propose a theory in which the search behavior of the employed has profound aggregate implications for the unemployed. There is a strategic complementarity between active on-the-job search and vacancy posting by firms, which leads to multiple equilibria: in the presence of sorting, active on-the-job search improves the quality of the pool of searchers. This encourages vacancy posting, which in t...
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作者：Williamson, Stephen D.
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：A model is constructed in which households and banks have incentives to fake the quality of collateral. These incentive problems matter when collateral is scarce in the aggregate-when real interest rates are low. Conventional monetary easing can exacerbate these problems, in that the misrepresentation of collateral becomes more profitable, thus increasing haircuts and interest rate differentials. Central bank purchases of private mortgages may not be feasible, due to the misrepresentation of a...
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作者：Marinescu, Ioana; Rathelot, Roland
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Warwick; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Could we significantly reduce US unemployment by helping job seekers move closer to jobs? Using data from the leading employment board CareerBuilder.com, we show that, indeed, workers dislike applying to distant jobs: job seekers are 35 percent less likely to apply to a job 10 miles (mi.) away from their zip code of residence. However, because job seekers are close enough to vacancies on average, this distaste for distance is fairly inconsequential: our search and matching model predicts that ...
