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作者：Hsieh, Chang-Tai; Klenow, Peter J.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Researchers have made much progress in the past 25 years in accounting for the proximate determinants of income levels: physical capital, human capital, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). But we still know little about why these factors vary. We argue that TFP exerts a powerful influence on output not only directly, but also indirectly, through its effect on physical and human capital accumulation. We discuss why TFP varies across countries, highlighting misallocation of inputs across firms ...
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作者：Elsby, Michael W. L.; Michaels, Ryan; Solon, Gary
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Michigan State University
摘要：A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize rising unemployment in eac...
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作者：Bernstein, Joshua; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander w.; Throckmorton, Nathaniel a.
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; William & Mary
摘要：This paper documents that labor search and matching frictions generate countercyclical uncertainty because the inherent nonlinearity in the flow of new matches makes employment uncertainty increasing in the number of people searching for work. Quantitatively, this mechanism is strong enough to explain uncertainty and real activity dynamics, including their correlation. Through this lens, uncertainty fluctuations are endogenous responses to changes in real activity that neither affect the sever...
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作者：Vollrath, Dietrich
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：It is often assumed that the elasticity of GDP with respect to capital is one-third, but this assumes zero markups and an aggregate production function. I estimate the elasticity allowing markups to vary by industry and with a rich input-output structure. Assumptions about capital costs provide bounds on elasticity. In the United States from 1948-1995, the capital elasticity ranged from 0. 19-0.32 and shifted to 0.24-0.37 by 1996-2018. Excluding housing or decapitalizing intellectual property ...
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作者：Fongoni, Marco
作者单位：Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：This paper develops a search and matching framework in which workers are characterized by asymmetric reference-dependent rec-iprocity and firms set wages by considering the effect that these can have on workers' effort and, therefore, on output. The cyclical response of effort to wage changes can considerably amplify shocks, independently of the cyclicality of the hiring wage, which becomes irrelevant for unemployment volatility, and firms' expectations of downward wage rigidity in existing jo...
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作者：Xing, Jianwei; Zou, Eric Yongchen; Yin, Zhentao; Wang, Yong; Li, Zhenhua
作者单位：Peking University; Peking University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
摘要：We study a new consumption stimulus program implemented by a large Chinese city that leverages mobile payment platforms to dis-pense massive amounts of small-value digital coupons. Exploiting a rush design of the dispensing process in which over 1 million pro-gram participants compete for coupons on a first-come, first-served basis through a digital portal, we estimate that winning coupons increases weekly out-of-pocket spending by US$3 for every US$1 in government subsidy. Coupon-winning cons...
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作者：Dolfen, Paul; Einav, Liran; Klenow, Peter J.; Klopack, Benjamin; Levin, Jonathan D.; Levin, Larry; Best, Wayne
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Stanford University
摘要：E-commerce represents a rapidly growing share of consumer spend-ing in the United States. We use transactions-level data on credit and debit cards from Visa, Inc. between 2007 and 2017 to quantify the resulting consumer surplus. We estimate e-commerce reached 8 percent of consumption by 2017, yielding the equivalent of a 1 per-cent boost to their consumption, or over $1,000 per household per year. While some of the gains arose from avoiding travel costs to local merchants, most of the gains st...
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作者：Fukui, Masao; Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon
作者单位：Boston University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Business cycle recoveries have slowed in recent decades. This slow-down comes entirely from female employment, as women's employ-ment rates converged toward men's during the past half-century. But does the slowdown in the growth of female employment rates translate into a slowdown for overall employment rates? We estimate the extent to which women crowd out men in the labor market across US states, and find that it is small. Through the lens of a gen-eral equilibrium model with home production...
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作者：Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Tsyvinski, Aleh
作者单位：Yale University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We model the world economy as one system of endogenous input-out-put relationships subject to frictions and study how the world's input-output structure and world's GDP change due to changes in frictions. We derive a sufficient statistic to identify frictions from the observed world input-output matrix, which we fully match for the year 2011. We show how changes in internal frictions impact the whole structure of the world's economy and that they have a much larger effect on world's GDP than e...
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作者：Hemous, David; Olsen, Morten
作者单位：University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We build an endogenous growth model with automation (the replacement of low-skill workers with machines) and horizontal innovation (the creation of new products). Over time, the share of automation innovations endogenously increases through an increase in low-skill wages, leading to an increase in the skill premium and a decline in the labor share. We calibrate the model to the US economy and show that it quantitatively replicates the paths of the skill premium, the labor share, and labor prod...
