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作者：Baumeister, Christiane; Peersman, Gert
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Ghent University
摘要：Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods,...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Clemens, Michael A.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Concern has intensified in recent years that many instrumental variables used in widely-cited growth regressions may be invalid, weak, or both. Attempts to remedy this general problem remain inadequate. We show how a range of published studies can offer more evidence that their results are not spurious. Key steps include: grounding growth regressions in more generalized theoretical models, deployment of new methods for estimating sensitivity to violations of exclusion restrictions, opening the...
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作者：Carneiro, Anabela; Guimaraes, Paulo; Portugal, Pedro
作者单位：Universidade do Porto; Universidade do Porto; University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia; Banco de Portugal; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Using a longitudinal matched employer-employee dataset for Portugal over the 1986-2007 period, this study analyzes the wage responses to aggregate labor market conditions for newly hired workers and existing workers within the same firm. Accounting for worker, firm, and job title heterogeneity, the data support the hypothesis that entry wages are more procyclical than wages of stayers. A one point increase in the unemployment rate decreases wages of newly hired workers within a given firm-job ...
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作者：Billi, Roberto M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City
摘要：This paper studies the optimal long-run inflation rate (OIR) in a small New Keynesian model, where the only policy instrument is a short-term nominal interest rate that may occasionally run against a zero lower bound (ZLB). The model allows for worst-case scenarios of misspecification. The analysis shows first, if the government optimally commits, the OIR is below 1 percent annually. Second, if the government re-optimizes each period, the OIR rises markedly to 17 percent. Third, if the governm...
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作者：Reis, Ricardo; Watson, Mark W.
作者单位：Columbia University; Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices in the United States since 1959 to separate them into three independent components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, a low-dimensional index of aggregate relative-price changes, and an index of equiproportional changes in all inflation rates that we label pure inflation. We use the estimates to answer two questions. First, what share of the variability of inflation is associated with each compone...
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作者：Davis, Steven J.; Faberman, R. Jason; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron; Miranda, Javier
作者单位：University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent by the mid 1990s. Using low frequency movements in. industry-level data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point drop in the quarterly job destruction rate lowers the monthly unemployment inflow rate by 0.28 points. By our estimates, declines in job destruction intensity account for 28 (55) percent of the fall in unemployment inflows from 1982 (1990) to 2005. Slower job destruction accounts for simil...
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作者：Livshits, Igor; MacGee, James; Tertilt, Michele
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Stanford University
摘要：Personal bankruptcies in the United States have increased dramatically, rising from 1.4 per thousand working age adults in 1970 to 8.5 in 2002. We use a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with competitive lenders to evaluate several commonly offered explanations. We find that increased uncertainty (income shocks, expense uncertainty) cannot account quantitatively for the rise in bankruptcies. Instead, the rise in filings appears mainly to reflect changes in the credit market environment: a d...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit V.; Moll, Benjamin
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago
摘要：Recent papers argue that the misallocation of resources can explain large cross-country TFP differences. This argument is underpinned by empirical evidence documenting substantial dispersion in the marginal products of resources, particularly capital, in developing countries. But why does misallocation persists? That is, why don't distortions disappear on their own? This is particularly true for capital misallocation, a point we illustrate in a simple model of capital accumulation with credit ...
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作者：Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Zaratiegui, Emilio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Emory University; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：We study the distribution of labor income during large devaluations. Across countries, inequality falls after large devaluations within the context of a surge in inflation and a fall and subsequent recovery of real labor income. To better understand inequality dynamics, we use a novel administrative dataset covering the 2002 Argentinean devaluation. We show that following a homogeneous fall in real labor income across workers, the bottom of the income distribution recovers faster than the top....
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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Cambridge
摘要：In this paper, I show that the decline in consumption during unemployment depends on both liquid and illiquid wealth; that unemployment predicts illiquid asset withdrawal, primarily when households have few liquid assets; and that increased idiosyncratic unemployment risk leads to a rise in saving overall, but also to a decline in investment in illiquid assets. Motivated by these new findings, I embed endogenous unemployment risk in a two-asset, heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. The mod...
