The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Maestas, Nicole; Mullen, Kathleen J.; Powell, David
• 署名单位: Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; RAND Corporation; Rand Health
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190196
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 306-332
• 关键词: demographics; AGE; FUTURE; output; young

摘要

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employ-ment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010. (JELE23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)