American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics

最新文章

• Learning by Sharing: Monetary Policy and Common Knowledge AI翻译
  作者：Kohlhas, Alexandre N.
  摘要：A common view states that central bank releases decrease central banks' own information about the economy and are harmful if about inefficient disturbances, such as cost-push shocks. This paper shows how neither is true in a microfounded macroeconomic model in which households and firms learn from central bank releases and the central bank learns from the observation of firm prices. Central bank releases make private sector and central bank expectations closer to common knowledge. This helps t...
• Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurances AI翻译
  作者：Busch, Christopher; Domeij, David; Guvenen, Fatih; Madera, Rocio
  作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Stockholm School of Economics; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Southern Methodist University
  摘要：We provide new evidence on business cycle fluctuations in skewed labor income risk in the United States, Germany, Sweden, and France. We document four results. First, in all countries, the skewness of individual income growth is strongly procyclical, whereas its variance is flat and acyclical. Second, this result also holds for continuously employed, full-time workers, indicating that the hours margin is not the main driver; additional analyses of hours and wages confirm that both margins are ...
• Financial Risk Capacity AI翻译
  作者：Bigio, Saki; d'Avernas, Adrien
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Stockholm School of Economics
  摘要：Financial crises are particularly severe and lengthy when banks fail to recapitalize after bearing large losses. We present a model that explains the slow recovery of bank capital and economic activity. Banks provide intermediation in markets with information asymmetries. Large equity losses force banks to tighten intermediation, which exacerbates adverse selection. Adverse selection lowers bank profit margins, which slows both the internal growth of equity and equity injections. This mechanis...
• Agglomeration, Misallocation, and (the Lack of) Competition AI翻译
  作者：Brooks, Wyatt J.; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Li, Yao Amber
  作者单位：University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
  摘要：Industrial agglomeration policies may limit competition. We develop, validate, and apply a novel approach for measuring competition based on the comovement of markups and market shares among firms in the same location and industry. Then we develop a model of how this reduction in competition affects aggregate income. We apply our approach to the well-known special economic zones (SEZs) of China. We estimate that firms in SEZs exhibit cooperative pricing almost three times as intensively as fir...
• MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets AI翻译
  作者：Fagereng, Andreas; Holm, Martin B.; Natvik, Gisle J.
  作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School; Statistics Norway; University of Oslo
  摘要：We use sizable lottery prizes in Norwegian administrative panel data to explore how transitory income shocks are spent and saved over time and how households' marginal propensities to consume (MPCs) vary with household characteristics and shock size. We find that spending peaks in the year of winning and gradually reverts to normal within five years. Controlling for all items on households' balance sheets and characteristics such as education and income, it is the amount won, age, and liquid a...
• Optimal Capital Requirements over the Business and Financial Cycles AI翻译
  作者：Malherbe, Frederic
  作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London
  摘要：I study economies where banks do not fully internalize the social costs of their lending decisions, which leads to real overinvestment. The bank capital requirement that restores investment efficiency varies over time. During booms, more investment is desirable, so the banking sector must be allowed to expand. This suggests a loosening of the requirement. However, there is also more bank capital. Since the banking sector exhibits decreasing returns to scale, this suggests a tightening instead....
• Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy AI翻译
  作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Romei, Federica
  作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Brown University; Stockholm School of Economics
  摘要：This paper proposes a postcrisis New Keynesian model that incorporates agent heterogeneity in borrowing and lending with a minimum set of assumptions. Unlike the standard framework, this model makes the natural rate of interest endogenous and dependent on macroeconomic policy. The main application is to study optimal monetary policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Such policy succeeds in raising the natural rate of interest by creating an environment that speeds up deleveraging and thus endogen...
• Older Americans Would Work Longer if Jobs Were Flexible AI翻译
  作者：Ameriks, John; Briggs, Joseph; Caplin, Andrew; Lee, Minjoon; Shapiro, Matthew D.; Tonetti, Christopher
  作者单位：The Vanguard Group, Inc.; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Carleton University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Stanford University
  摘要：Older Americans, even those who are long retired, have strong willingness to work, especially in jobs with flexible schedules. For many, labor force participation near or after normal retirement age is limited more by a lack of acceptable job opportunities or low expectations about finding them than by unwillingness to work longer. This paper establishes these findings using an approach to identification based on strategic survey questions, purposefully designed to complement behavioral data. ...
• Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs AI翻译
  作者：Andrade, Philippe; Gaballo, Gaetano; Mengus, Eric; Mojon, Benoit
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Paris School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
  摘要：Central banks' announcements that rates are expected to remain low could signal either a weak macroeconomic outlook, which would slow expenditures, or a more accommodative stance, which may stimulate economic activity. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to show that, when the Fed gave guidance between 2011:III and 2012:IV, these two interpretations coexisted despite a consensus on low expected rates. We rationalize these facts in a New-Keynesian model where heterogeneous beliefs int...
• The Price of Growth: Consumption Insurance in China 1989-2009 AI翻译
  作者：Santaeulalia-Llopis, Raul; Zheng, Yu
  作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Autonomous University of Barcelona; City University of Hong Kong
  摘要：We exploit a novel and unique opportunity to document the transmission of income risk to consumption in a growing economy. Our laboratory is China, an economy that has witnessed enormous and sustained growth. We build a long panel of household-level consumption and income data. We find that consumption insurance deteriorates along the growth process with a transmission of permanent income shocks to consumption that at least triples from 1989 to 2009. Although preliminary, our welfare analysis ...