Learning-through-Survey in Inflation Expectations?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kim, Gwangmin; Binder, Carola
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Haverford College
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200387
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 254-278
• 关键词: phillips-curve; sticky prices; INFORMATION

摘要

When surveys rely on repeat participants, this raises the possibil-ity that survey participation may affect future responses, perhaps by prompting information acquisition between survey waves. We show that these learning-through-survey effects are large for household inflation expectations. Repeat survey participants gener-ally have lower inflation expectations and uncertainty, particularly if their initial uncertainty was high. Consequently, repeat partici-pants may be more informed about or attentive to inflation. This has important implications: for example, inflation expectations of new participants are more influenced by oil prices, and estimates of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are lower for new participants. (JEL C83, D84, E31, E37, E58)