The Intensive Margin in Trade: How Big and How Important?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fernandes, Ana M.; Klenow, Peter J.; Meleshchuk, Sergii; Pierola, Martha Denisse; Rodriguez-Clare, Andres
• 署名单位: The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; Inter-American Development Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200269
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 320-354
• 关键词: firms; gravity; welfare; models; PRODUCTIVITY; CONSEQUENCES; gains; size

摘要

In benchmark trade models that feature a constant trade elastic-ity, bilateral exports vary entirely on the intensive margin (exports per firm) or entirely on the extensive margin (number of firms). Our empirical analysis documents that roughly one-half of this variation occurs along each margin, implying that the trade elasticity is not constant. We estimate a generalized Melitz model with a joint log-normal distribution for firm productivity, fixed costs, and demand shifters. Using exact-hat algebra, we quantify how trade costs affect trade flows and welfare. Welfare effects are similar to those in the Melitz-Pareto model, but implied trade flows differ significantly.