Evaluating the Classification of Economic Activity into Recessions and Expansions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berge, Travis J.; Jorda, Oscar
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.2.246
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 246-277
• 关键词: business cycles; AREA; models

摘要

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. We investigate three central aspects of this chronology. How skillful is the Dating Committee when classifying economic activity into expansions and recessions? Which indices of economic conditions best capture the current but unobservable state of the business cycle? And which indicators best predict future turning points, and at what horizons? We answer each of these questions in detail using methods specifically designed to assess classification ability. In the process, we clarify several important features of the business cycle. (JEL C82, E32)