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作者：Ferrante, Francesco
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I develop a macroeconomic model in which banks can affect loan quality by exerting costly screening effort. Informational frictions limit the amount of external funds that banks can raise. In this framework, I consider two types of financial intermediation: traditional banking and shadow banking. By pooling different loans, shadow banks achieve a higher endogenous leverage compared to traditional banks, increasing credit availability. However, shadow banks also make the financial sector more f...
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作者：Imrohoroglu, Selahattin; Kitao, Sagiri
作者单位：University of Southern California; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY)
摘要：This paper develops a general equilibrium life-cycle model with endogenous labor supply in both intensive and extensive margins, consumption, saving, and benefit claiming to measure the long-run effects of a proposed Social Security reform. Agents in the model face medical expenditure, wage, health, and survival shocks. Raising the normal retirement age by two years increases labor supply by 2.8 percent and the capital stock by 12.6 percent, showing that both margins of adjustment are critical...
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作者：Wang, Pengfei; Wen, Yi
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：Are asset prices unduly volatile and often detached from their fundamentals? Does the bursting of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these issues by constructing a DSGE model with speculative bubbles. We characterize conditions under which storable goods, regardless of their intrinsic values, can carry bubbles, and agents are willing to invest in such bubbles despite their positive probability of bursting. The results show that systemic risk, commonly perceived ch...
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作者：Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Obstfeld, Maurice
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A key precursor of twentieth-century financial crises in emerging and advanced economies alike was the rapid buildup of leverage. Those emerging economies that avoided leverage booms during the 2000s also were most likely to avoid the worst effects of the twenty-first century's first global crisis. A discrete-choice panel analysis using 1973-2010 data suggests that domestic credit expansion and real currency appreciation have been the most robust and significant predictors of financial crises,...
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作者：Jones, Charles I.; Romer, Paul M.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：In 1961, Nicholas Kaldor highlighted six stylized facts to summarize the patterns that economists had discovered in national income accounts and to shape the growth models being developed to explain them. Redoing this exercise today shows just how much progress we have made. In contrast to Kaldor's facts, which revolved around a single state variable, physical capital, our updated facts force consideration of four far more interesting variables: ideas, institutions, population, and human capit...
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作者：Sims, Christopher A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：When government debt pays a lower return than private assets, the reasoning in Friedman's (1969) essay on the optimal quantity of money suggests that it would be optimal to expand the debt until its return matched that on private assets. When the only other source of revenue is a distorting tax, however, this is not generally true. In a perfect foresight model, a benevolent government that can make credible commitments chooses a large gap in returns initially and high distorting taxation in th...
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作者：Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen j.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China's emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that ...
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作者：Anderson, Gareth; Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Bank of England
摘要：Firms with high leverage experience a more pronounced increase in credit spreads than firms with low leverage in response to a monetary policy tightening. A large fraction of this increase is due to a component of credit spreads that is in excess of firms' expected default risk. A stylized heterogeneous firm model with default risk, financially constrained intermediaries, and segmented financial markets is able to account for these facts. Our findings imply that financial intermediaries play a...
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作者：Mercan, Yusuf; Schoefer, Benjamin; Sedlacek, Petr
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new and incumbent workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a tenfold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30-40 percent of US unemployment fluctuations. Addition...
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作者：Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.; Hirano, Tomohiro; Jinnai, Ryo
作者单位：Boston College; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endog-enous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stim-ulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted US ...
