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作者：Chahrour, Ryan; Ulbricht, Robert
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：We provide predictions for DSGE models with incomplete informa-tion that are robust across information structures. Our approach maps an incomplete-information model into a full-information econ-omy with time-varying expectation wedges and provides conditions that ensure the wedges are rationalizable by some information struc-ture. Using our approach, we quantify the potential importance of information as a source of business cycle fluctuations in an other-wise frictionless model. Our approach ...
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作者：Alder, Simon; Boppart, Timo; Mueller, Andreas
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB); University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Stockholm University; University of St Gallen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Essex
摘要：We study structural change in the historical consumption expenditure of the United States , the United Kingdom , Canada , and Australia over more than a century. We characterize the most general class of preferences in a time-additive setting that admits aggregation of the saving decision and allows us to identify preference parameters from aggregate data. We parameterize and estimate such intertemporally aggregable (IA) preferences and discuss their properties in a dynamic general equilibrium...
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作者：Kreamer, Jonathan
作者单位：State University System of Florida; Florida State University
摘要：Since sectors differ in their sensitivity to interest rates, monetary policy produces inefficient sectoral fluctuations. In a model with sectoral heterogeneity, I show that policymakers should weight sectors proportionally to their interest elasticities, account for dynamic demand effects from durable goods, and systematically utilize forward guidance to reduce sectoral volatility. A calibrated model confirms these recommendations and finds that neglecting sectoral volatility produces substant...
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作者：Jarocinski, Marek; Karadi, Peter
作者单位：European Central Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Central bank announcements simultaneously convey information about monetary policy and the central bank's assessment of the economic outlook. This paper disentangles these two components and studies their effect on the economy using a structural vector autoregression. It relies on the information inherent in high-frequency co-movement of interest rates and stock prices around policy announcements: a surprise policy tightening raises interest rates and reduces stock prices, while the complement...
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作者：Fried, Stephie
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：A carbon tax can induce innovation in green technologies. I evaluate the quantitative impact of this channel in a dynamic, general equilibrium model with endogenous innovation in fossil, green, and nonenergy inputs. I discipline the parameters using evidence from historical oil shocks, after which both energy prices and energy innovation increased substantially. I find that a carbon tax induces large changes in innovation. This innovation response increases the effectiveness of the policy at r...
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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Patterson, Christina; Sahin, Aysegul
作者单位：Georgetown University; University of Virginia; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We create a novel measure of job search effort exploiting the American Time Use and Current Population Surveys. We examine the cyclicality of search effort using time-series, cross-state, and individual variation and find that it is countercyclical. We then set up a search and matching model with endogenous search effort and show that search effort does not amplify labor market fluctuations but rather dampens them. Lastly, we examine the role of search effort in driving recent unemployment dyn...
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作者：Demyanyk, Yuliya; Hryshko, Dmytro; Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose; Sorensen, Bent E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Alberta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; University of Houston System; University of Houston; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We use individual-level credit reports merged with loan-level mortgage data to estimate how home equity interacted with mobility in relatively weak and strong labor markets in the United States during the Great Recession. We construct a dynamic model of housing, consumption, employment, and relocation, which provides a structural interpretation of our empirical results and allows us to explore the role that foreclosure played in labor mobility. We find that negative home equity is not a signif...
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作者：Kehrig, Matthias; Ziebarth, Nicolas L.
作者单位：Duke University; Auburn University System; Auburn University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We find that oil supply shocks decrease average real wages, particularly skilled wages, and increase wage dispersion across regions, particularly unskilled wage dispersion. In a model with spatial energy intensity differences and nontradables, labor demand shifts, while explaining the response of average wages to oil supply shocks, have counterfactual implications for the response of wage dispersion. Only an additional response in labor supply can explain this latter fact, highlighting the imp...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Presno, Ignacio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Universidad de Montevideo
摘要：This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sover...
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作者：Klein, Michael W.; Shambaugh, Jay C.
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University
摘要：A central result in international macroeconomics is that a government cannot simultaneously opt for open financial markets, fixed exchange rates, and monetary autonomy; rather, it is constrained to choosing no more than two of these three. This paper considers whether partial capital controls and limited exchange rate flexibility allow for full monetary policy autonomy. We find partial capital controls do not generally allow for greater monetary control than with open capital accounts, unless ...
