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作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Shin, Minchul
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University of Pennsylvania; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：We assess the causal impact of pandemic-induced lockdowns on health and macroeconomic outcomes and measure the trade-off between containing the spread of a pandemic and economic activity. To do so, we estimate an epidemiological model with time-varying parameters and use its output as information for estimating SVARs and LPs that quantify the causal effects of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions. We apply our approach to Belgian data for the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020. We find that addit...
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作者：Altinoglu, Levent; Stiglitz, Joseph E.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Columbia University
摘要：The concentration of risk within the financial system leads to systemic instability. We propose a theory to explain the structure of the financial system and show how it alters the risk-taking incentives of financial institutions when the government optimally intervenes during crises. By issuing interbank claims, risky institutions endogenously become large and interconnected. This concentrated structure enables insti-tutions to share the risk of systemic crises in a privately optimal way but ...
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Johnson, Stephanie; Kueng, Lorenz
作者单位：Northwestern University; Rice University; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using comprehensive high-frequency state and local sales tax data, we show that shopping behavior responds strongly to changes in sales tax rates. Even though sales taxes are not observed in posted prices and have a wide range of rates and exemptions, consumers adjust in many dimensions. They stock up on storable goods before taxes rise and increase online and -cross-border shopping in both the short and long run. The difference between short- and -long-run spending responses has important imp...
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作者：Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolbin, Sergey; Nosal, Jaromir B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Amazon.com; Boston College
摘要：Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each...
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作者：Albert, Christoph
摘要：This paper studies the labor market effects of both documented and undocumented immigration in a search model featuring nonrandom hiring. As immigrants accept lower wages, they are preferably chosen by firms and therefore have higher job finding rates than natives, consistent with evidence found in US data. Immigration leads to the creation of additional jobs but also raises competition for natives. The dominant effect depends on the fall in wage costs, which is larger for undocumented immigra...
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作者：Nordhaus, William D.
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO2 emissions lead to catast...
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作者：Van der Ghote, Alejandro
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：I study monetary and macroprudential policy intervention in a general equilibrium economy with recurrent boom-bust cycles. Recurrence causes forward-looking variables to also react to policy intervention during phases in which the intervention is inactive. Macroprudential policies that contain systemic risk in financial markets during booms, therefore, relax market-based funding constraints during busts, which helps mitigate the severity and shorten the duration of economic meltdowns. Contract...
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作者：De Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：University Moratuwa; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementatio...
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作者：Challe, Edouard
作者单位：Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris; Ecole Polytechnique
摘要：I study optimal monetary policy in a sticky-price economy wherein households precautionary-save against uninsured, endogenous unemployment risk. In this economy greater unemployment risk raises desired savings, causing aggregate demand to fall and feed back to greater unemployment risk. This deflationary spiral is constrained inefficient and calls for an accommodative monetary policy response: after a contractionary aggregate shock the policy rate should be kept significantly lower and for lon...
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作者：Hsieh, Chang-Tai; Moretti, Enrico
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs. Misallocation arises because high productivity cities like New York and the San Francisco Bay Area have adopted stringent restrictions to new housing supply, effectively limiting the number of workers who have access to such high productivity. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data from 220 metropolitan areas we find that these constraints lowered aggregate US growth by 36 percent from 1964 t...
