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作者：Aksoy, Yunus; Basso, Henrique S.; Smith, Ron P.; Grasl, Tobias
作者单位：University of London; Birkbeck University London; Banco de Espana
摘要：We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of popul...
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作者：Blum, Bernardo S.; Claro, Sebastian; Dasgupta, Kunal; Horstmann, Ignatius J.
作者单位：University of Toronto; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; University of Toronto
摘要：Previous research has documented that export shipments are lumpy-exporters make infrequent and relatively large shipments to any given export destination. This fact has been interpreted as implying that fixed, per shipment cost and inventory management decisions play a key role in international trade. We document here that exports from poor countries are considerably more lumpy-have higher fixed per shipment cost-than those from rich countries. Using a model of trade with inventory management,...
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作者：Fernandez, Andres; Gulan, Adam
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Bank of Finland
摘要：Countercyclical country interest rates have been shown to be an important characteristic of business cycles in emerging markets. In this paper we provide a microfounded rationale for this pattern by linking interest rate spreads to the dynamics of corporate leverage. For this purpose we embed a financial accelerator into a business cycle model of a small open economy and estimate it on a novel panel dataset for emerging economies that merges macroeconomic and financial data. The model accounts...
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作者：Kapicka, Marek
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：I characterize optimal taxes in a life-cycle economy where ability and human capital are unobservable. I show that unobservable human capital effectively makes preferences over labor nonseparable across age. I generalize the static optimal tax formulas to account for such nonseparabilities and show how they depend both on own-Frisch labor elasticities and cross-Frisch labor elasticities. I calibrate the economy to US data. I find that the optimal marginal income taxes decrease with age, in con...
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作者：Nagar, Venky; Yu, Gwen
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Harvard University
摘要：We provide among the first empirical evidence, consistent with recent macro global game crisis models, that shows that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises. In these models, self-fulfilling crises independent of fundamentals can occur only when publicly disclosed signals of fundamentals have high precision; poor fundamentals are the sole driver of crises only in low precision settings. We exploit a key publicly disclosed signal of fundamentals, namely accounting data, for 68 c...
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作者：Sandri, Damiano
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We show that the behavior of entrepreneurs facing incomplete financial markets and risky investment can explain why accelerations of productivity growth in developing countries tend to be associated with current account improvements. Under uninsurable investment risk, entrepreneurs have to largely rely on self-financing so that, when productivity growth rises, entrepreneurs increase saving to finance new investment. The key insight is that saving has to increase more than investment to also al...
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作者：Vandenbroucke, Guillaume
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：During World War I, the birth rate in France fell by 50 percent. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91 percent of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income a...
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作者：Weise, Charles L.
作者单位：Gettysburg College
摘要：Drawing on an analysis of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) documents, this paper argues that political pressures on the Federal Reserve were an important contributor to the rise in inflation in the United States in the 1970s. Members of the FOMC understood that a serious attempt to tackle inflation would generate opposition from Congress and the executive branch. Political considerations contributed to delays in monetary tightening, insufficiently aggressive anti-inflation policies, and th...
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作者：Hall, George J.; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：Brandeis University; New York University
摘要：This paper uses a sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of returns on the US Federal government debt. Our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from the interest payments reported by the US government. We use our estimates to account for contributions to the evolution of the debt-GDP ratio made by inflation, growth, and nominal returns paid on debts of different maturities. (JEL E23, E31, E43, G12, H63)
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作者：Longstaff, Francis A.; Pan, Jun; Pedersen, Lasse H.; Singleton, Kenneth J.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; Stanford University
摘要：We study the nature of sovereign credit risk using an extensive set of sovereign CDS data. We find that the majority of sovereign credit risk can be linked to global factors. A single principal component accounts for 64 percent of the variation in sovereign credit spreads. Furthermore, sovereign credit spreads are more related to the US stock and high-yield markets than they are to local economic measures. We decompose credit spreads into their risk premium and default risk components. On aver...
