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作者：Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Stock, James H.
作者单位：Tufts University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Harvard University
摘要：We estimate the macroeconomic impacts of carbon taxes on GDP and employment growth rates using 30 years of data on carbon tax-ation in various European countries. We find no evidence for a neg-ative impact on employment or GDP growth but rather find a zero to modest positive impact. We also find a cumulative emissions reduc-tion on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO2 tax covering 30 percent of emissions. Reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based US carbon tax since Europea...
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作者：Gust, Christopher; Herbst, Edward; Lopez-Salido, David
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We estimate a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon planning (FHP) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model as well as other behavioral NK models. In the FHP model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward-looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to substantial aggregate persistence without resorting to addit...
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作者：Nakata, Taisuke; Schmidt, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Tokyo; European Central Bank; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study optimal time-consistent monetary and fiscal policy in a New Keynesian model where occasional declines in agents' confi-dence give rise to persistent liquidity trap episodes. Insights from widely studied fundamental-driven liquidity traps are not a useful guide for enhancing welfare in this model. Raising the inflation tar-get, appointing an inflation-conservative central banker, or allowing for the use of government spending as an additional stabilization tool can exacerbate deflation...
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作者：V. Leahy, John; Thapar, Aditi
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We exploit cross-sectional variation in the response of US states to an identified monetary policy shock to study how the impact of mone-tary policy varies with the age structure of the population. We find that the economy's response is weaker the greater the share of population under 35 years of age and stronger the greater the share between 40 and 65. We find that all age groups become more responsive to mone-tary policy shocks when the proportion of the middle-aged increases. We provide evi...
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作者：Fadinger, Harald; Ghiglino, Christian; Teteryatnikova, Mariya
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Essex; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Vienna University of Economics & Business
摘要：We study the importance of input-output (IO) linkages and sectoral productivity (TFP) in determining cross-country income differences. We find that while highly connected sectors are more productive than the typical sector in poor countries, the opposite is true in rich ones. To assess the quantitative role of linkages and sectoral TFP differences in cross-country income differences, we decompose cross-country income variation using a multisector general equilibrium model. We find that IO link...
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作者：Brynjolfsson, Erik; Rock, Daniel; Syverson, Chad
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania; University of Chicago
摘要：General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find th...
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作者：Carvalho, Carlos; Lee, Jae Won; Park, Woong Yong
作者单位：University of Virginia; Seoul National University (SNU); Seoul National University (SNU)
摘要：We develop a multisector sticky-price DSGE model that can endogenously deliver differential responses of prices to aggregate and sectoral shocks. Input-output production linkages and a (standard) monetary policy rule contribute to a slow response of prices to aggregate shocks. In turn, labor market segmentation at the sectoral level induces within-sector strategic substitutability in price-setting decisions, which helps the model deliver a fast response of prices to sector-specific shocks. We ...
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作者：Leon-Ledesma, Miguel; Moro, Alessio
作者单位：University of Kent; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Cagliari
摘要：We investigate the effect of structural transformation on the process of economic growth. Using a two-sector growth model we show that, in addition to Baumol's cost disease, structural transformation from goods to services generates other predictions that are in line with cross-country growth facts: an increase in the real investment rate, a decline in the real interest rate and the marginal product of capital, and an acceleration of investment-specific technological change as the share of ser...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Optimal forward guidance is the simple policy of keeping interest rates low for some optimally determined number of periods after the liquidity trap ends and moving to normal-times optimal policy thereafter. I solve for the optimal duration in closed form in a new Keynesian model and show that it is close to fully optimal Ramsey policy. The simple rule announce a duration of half of the trap's duration times the disruption is a good approximation, including in a medium-scale dynamic stochastic...
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作者：Hedilund, Aaron
作者单位：University of Missouri System; University of Missouri Columbia
摘要：Can inflating away nominal mortgage liabilities effectively combat recessions? I address this question using a model of illiquid housing, endogenous credit supply, and equilibrium default. I show that, in an ordinary recession, temporarily raising the inflation target has only modest or even counterproductive effects. However, during episodes like the Great Recession, inflation effectively boosts house prices, consumption, and dramatically cuts foreclosures, but only when fixed-rate mortgages ...
