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作者：Herrendorf, Berthold; Herrington, Christopher; Valentinyi, Akos
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Virginia Commonwealth University; Cardiff University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We assess how the properties of technology affect structural transformation, i.e., the reallocation of production factors across the broad sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, and services. To this end, we estimate sectoral constant elasticity of substitution (CES) and Cobb-Douglas production functions on postwar US data. We find that differences in technical progress across the three sectors are the dominant force behind structural transformation whereas other differences across sectoral te...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Lippi, Francesco
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Sassari
摘要：We present a monetary model with segmented asset markets that implies a persistent fall in interest rates after a once-and-for-all increase in liquidity. The gradual propagation mechanism produced by our model is novel in the literature. We provide an analytical characterization of this mechanism, showing that the magnitude of the liquidity effect on impact, and its persistence, depend on the ratio of two parameters: the long-run interest rate elasticity of money demand and the intertemporal s...
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作者：Huntley, Jonathan; Michelangeli, Valentina
作者单位：Congressional Budget Office; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We build a life-cycle model with earnings risk, liquidity constraints, and portfolio choice over tax-deferred and taxable assets to evaluate how household consumption changes in response to shocks to transitory anticipated income, such as the 2001 income tax rebate. Households optimally invest in tax-deferred assets, which are encumbered by withdrawal penalties, and exchange taxable precautionary savings for higher after-tax returns. The model predicts a higher marginal propensity to consume o...
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作者：Bachmann, Ruediger; Elstner, Steffen; Sims, Eric R.
作者单位：RWTH Aachen University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper uses survey expectations data to construct empirical proxies for time-varying business-level uncertainty. Access to the micro data from the German IFO Business Climate Survey permits construction of uncertainty measures based on both ex ante disagreement and ex post forecast errors. Ex ante disagreement is strongly correlated with dispersion in ex post forecast errors. Surprise movements in either measure lead to significant reductions in production that abate fairly quickly. We ext...
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作者：Silva, Andre C.
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：Cash-in-advance models usually require agents to reallocate money and bonds in fixed periods. Every month or quarter, for example. I show that fixed periods underestimate the welfare cost of inflation. I use a model in which agents choose how often they exchange bonds for money. In the benchmark specification, the welfare cost of 10 percent instead of 0 inflation increases from 0.1 percent of income with fixed periods to 1 percent with optimal periods. The results are robust to different prefe...
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作者：Rudebusch, Glenn D.; Swanson, Eric T.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：The term premium in standard macroeconomic DSGE models is far too small and stable relative to the data-an example of the bond premium puzzle. However, in endowment economy models, researchers have generated reasonable term premiums by assuming investors have recursive Epstein-Zin preferences and face long-run economic risks. We show that introducing Epstein-Zin preferences into a canonical DSGE model can also produce a large and variable term premium without compromising the model's ability t...
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作者：Deaton, Angus; Heston, Alan
作者单位：Princeton University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We provide an overview of the theory and practice of constructing PPPs. We focus on four practical areas: how to handle international differences in quality; the treatment of urban and rural areas of large countries; how to estimate prices for government services, health, and education; and the effects of the regional structure of the latest International Comparison Program for 2005. We discuss revisions of the Penn World Table, and their effects on econometric analysis, and include health war...
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作者：Canova, Fabio; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirica...
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作者：Obstfeld, Maurice; Shambaugh, Jay C.; Taylor, Alan M.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Dartmouth College; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：The rapid growth of international reserves, a development concentrated in the emerging markets, remains a puzzle. In this paper, we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange...
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作者：Ganapati, Sharat; Wong, Woan foong; Ziv, Oren
作者单位：Georgetown University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oregon; Michigan State University
摘要：We study the global trade network and quantify its trade and welfare impact. We document that the trade network is a hub-and-spoke system where 80 percent of trade is shipped indirectly and largely via entrep & ocirc;ts-major hubs that facilitate trade between many origins and destinations. We estimate indirect-shipping-consistent trade costs using a model where shipments can be sent indirectly through an endogenous transport network and develop a geography-based instrument to estimate scale e...
