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作者：Kleinert, Journ; Martin, Julien; Toubal, Farid
作者单位：University of Graz; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Universite Paris Saclay; Paris School of Economics
摘要：This paper argues that the correlation of business cycles across countries is largely due to linkages between multinational firms and their foreign affiliates. There are very few foreign affiliates in France, but they contribute considerably to aggregate economic activities. We exploit the heterogeneity in the presence and origin of foreign affiliates across French regions to identify their impact on comovement. We find a positive impact of foreign affiliates' presence on the comovement of bus...
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作者：Jung, Philip; Kuester, Keith
作者单位：Dortmund University of Technology; University of Bonn
摘要：Within a search and matching model with risk-averse workers, endogenous hiring and separation, and unobservable search effort, we show how to decentralize the constrained-efficient allocation by a combination of a production tax and three labor-market policy instruments: vacancy subsidies, layoff taxes, and unemployment benefits. We derive analytical expressions for the optimal mix of these over the business cycle. Calibrating the model to the US economy under the assumption that wages are rig...
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作者：Svensson, Lars E. O.
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Stockholm University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes nonvertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage points. The estimates reported suggest that the slope of the long-run Phillips curve is about 0.75. Then the average unemployment rate...
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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Blattman, Christopher
作者单位：Boston University; Columbia University
摘要：Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counterinsurgency capac...
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作者：Benhima, Kenza; Massenot, Baptiste
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a safe one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it...
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作者：McDaniel, Cara
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University System of Ohio; Kenyon College
摘要：The goal of this paper is to examine the role of taxes and productivity growth as forces influencing market hours. To achieve this goal, the paper considers a calibrated growth model extended to include home production and subsistence consumption, both of which are found to be key features influencing market hours. The model is simulated for 15 OECD countries. The primary force driving changes in market hours is found to be changing labor income tax rates. Productivity catch-up relative to the...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Hobijn, Bart; Tambalotti, Andrea
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We construct a PCE-based price index whose weights minimize the welfare costs of nominal distortions: a cost-of-nominal-distortions index. We compute these weights in a multi-sector New Keynesian model, calibrated to match US data on price stickiness, labor shares, and inflation across sectors. The CONDI weights mostly depend on price stickiness. Moreover, CONDI stabilization leads to negligible welfare losses compared to the optimal policy and is better approximated by core rather than headli...
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作者：Burke, Paul J.; Leigh, Andrew
作者单位：Australian National University; Australian National University
摘要：Does faster economic growth increase pressure for democratic change, or reduce it? Using data for 154 countries for the period 1963-2007, we examine the short-run relationship between economic growth and moves toward and away from greater democracy. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, we use variation in precipitation, temperatures, and commodity prices as instruments for a country's rate of economic growth. Our results indicate that more rapid economic growth reduces the ...
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作者：McGrattan, Ellen R.; Prescott, Edward C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：For the 1990s, the basic neoclassical growth model predicts a depressed economy, when in fact the US economy boomed. We extend the base model by introducing intangible investment and non-neutral technology change with respect to producing intangible investment goods and find that the 1990s are not puzzling in light of this new theory. There is microeconomic and macroeconomic evidence motivating our extension, and the theory's predictions are in conformity with US national accounts and capital ...
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作者：Comin, Diego; Easterly, William; Gong, Erick
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We assemble a dataset on technology adoption in 1000 BC, 0 AD, and 1500 AD for the predecessors to today's nation states. Technological differences are surprisingly persistent over long periods of time. Our most interesting, strong, and robust results are for the association of 1500 AD technology with per capita income and technology adoption today. We also find robust and significant technological persistence from 1000 BC to 0 AD, and front 0 AD to 1500 AD. The evidence is consistent with a m...
