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作者：Guerkaynak, Refet S.; Sack, Brian; Wright, Jonathan H.
作者单位：Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：For over ten years, the Treasury has issued index-linked debt. This paper describes the methodology for fitting a smoothed yield curve to these securities that is used at the Federal Reserve Board every day, and makes the estimates public. Comparison with the corresponding nominal yield curve allows measures of inflation compensation to be computed. We discuss the interpretation of inflation compensation, and provide evidence that it is not a pure measure of inflation expectations being distor...
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作者：Gali, Jordi; Gambetti, Luca
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, a shrinking contribution of nontechnology shocks to output volatility, and a change in the cyclical response of labo...
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作者：Cai, Xiaoming; Gautier, Pieter; Wolthoff, Ronald
作者单位：Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of Toronto
摘要：We examine how search frictions impact labor market sorting by constructing a model consistent with evidence that employers interview a subset of a pool of applicants. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for sorting in applications and matches. Positive sorting is obtained when production complementarities outweigh a counterforce measured by a (novel) quality-quantity elasticity. Interestingly, the threshold for the complementarities depends on the fraction of high-type workers and c...
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作者：Lee, Byoungchan
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：I construct an incomplete market model featuring a closed-form expression for optimal consumption. In the model, individual consumption is an isoelastic function of wealth, inclusive of income, yielding partial consumption smoothing based on borrowing and lending in response to income shocks. I show that the model replicates several empirical characteristics of inequality in consumption, income, and wealth and their dynamics at the individual level. Using the model, I show that the rising weal...
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作者：Pindyck, Robert s.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How does sustainable consumption depend on productivity growth, the size and growth rate of the population, and uncertainty over these growth rates? I address these questions using a model in which productivity and population growth are stochastic and human lives can have ( positive or negative) intrinsic social value. I show how sustainable consumption depends on expected rates of productivity and population growth, the volatility of those rates, and the dependence of welfare on population. F...
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作者：Davis, Steven j.; Haltiwanger, John
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：We estimate the effects of house price changes on young -firm employment shares and industry -level employment growth in local economies. A novel test shows that house price effects on local economies work through wealth , liquidity , and collateral effects on the propensity to start new firms and expand young ones. Aggregating local effects to the national level , our estimates imply that housing market ups and downs play a major role - as transmission channel and driving force - in medium -r...
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作者：Camehl, Annika; Rieth, Malte
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：We study the dynamic interaction between COVID-19, economic mobility, and containment policy. We use Bayesian panel struc-tural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, iden-tified through traditional and narrative sign restrictions. We find that incidence shocks and containment shocks have large and per-sistent effects on mobility, morbidity, and mortality that last for one to two months. These shocks are the main drivers of the pandemic, explaining between 20 and 60 percent o...
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作者：Rudanko, Leena
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：This paper studies wage setting in a directed search model of multiworker firms facing within-firm equity constraints on wages. The constraints reduce wages, as firms exploit their monopsony power over their existing workers, rendering wages less responsive to productivity in doing so. They also give rise to a time inconsistency in the dynamic firm problem, as firms face a less elastic labor supply in the short run than in the long run, making commitment to future wages valuable. Constrained f...
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作者：Dovis, Alessandro; Kirpalani, Rishabh
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We propose a joint theory for interest rate dynamics and bailout decisions. Interest rate spreads are driven by time-varying fundamentals and expectations of future bailouts. Private agents are uncertain about the government's willingness to bail out and learn by observing its actions. The model provides an explanation for why we observe governments initially refusing to bail out borrowers at the beginning of a crisis even if they eventually end up providing a bailout after the crisis aggravat...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Presno, Ignacio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：How are the optimal tax and debt policies affected if the government can default on its debt? We address this question from a normative perspective in an economy with noncontingent government debt, domestic default, and labor taxes. On one hand, default prevents the government from incurring future tax distortions associated with servicing the debt. On the other hand, default risk gives rise to endogenous credit limits that hinder the government???s ability to smooth taxes. We characterize the...
