A Congestion Theory of Unemployment Fluctuationst

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mercan, Yusuf; Schoefer, Benjamin; Sedlacek, Petr
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of New South Wales Sydney
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210171
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 238-285
• 关键词: labor-market conditions; cyclical behavior; business-cycle; equilibrium unemployment; European unemployment; earnings losses; sectoral shifts; wages; insurance; turbulence

摘要

We propose a theory of unemployment fluctuations in which new and incumbent workers are imperfect substitutes. Hence, attempts hire away the unemployed during recessions diminish the marginal product of new hires, discouraging job creation. This single feature achieves a tenfold increase in the volatility of hiring in an otherwise standard search model, produces a realistic Beveridge curve despite countercyclical separations, and explains 30-40 percent of US unemployment fluctuations. Additionally, it explains the excess procyclicality of new hires' wages, the cyclical labor wedge, countercyclical earnings losses from job displacement, and the limited steady -state effects of unemployment insurance. (JEL E24, E32, J22, J23, J31,