Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidences

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A.; Hirano, Tomohiro; Jinnai, Ryo
• 署名单位: Boston College; University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Hitotsubashi University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220015
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 333-371
• 关键词: macroeconomic model; Asset bubbles; BUSINESS; news; constraints; INVESTMENT; liquidity; frictions; DYNAMICS; POLICY

摘要

We analyze the ups and downs in economic growth in recent decades by constructing a model with recurrent bubbles, crashes, and endog-enous growth. Once realized, bubbles crowd in investment and stim-ulate economic growth, but expectation about future bubbles crowds out investment and reduces economic growth. We identify bubbly episodes by estimating the model using the US data. Counterfactual simulations suggest that the IT and housing bubbles not only caused economic booms but also lifted US GDP by almost 2 percent-age points permanently, but the economy could have grown even faster if people had believed that asset bubbles would never arise. (JELE22, E23, E32, E44, G14, R31)