International Friends and Enemies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kleinman, Benny; Liu, Ernest; Redding, Stephen j.
• 署名单位: Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220223
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 350-385
• 关键词: trade; GROWTH; POLICY; Similarity; models; GOODS; aid

摘要

We examine whether, as countries become more economically dependent on a trade partner, they realign politically toward that trade partner. We use network measures of economic exposure to foreign productivity growth derived from the class of trade models with a constant trade elasticity. We establish causality using two different sources of quasi-experimental variation: China's emergence into the global economy and the reduction in the cost of air travel over time. In both cases, we find that increased economic friendship causes increased political friendship and that our theory-based network measures dominate simpler measures of trading relationships between countries. ( JEL D72, E23, F14, F15, F53, O19, P33)