The Trade-Comovement Puzzle
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Drozd, Lukasz A.; Kolbin, Sergey; Nosal, Jaromir B.
署名单位：
Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Amazon.com; Boston College
刊物名称：
AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
ISSN/ISSBN：
1945-7707
DOI：
10.1257/mac.20170386
发表日期：
2021
页码：
78-120
关键词：
摘要：
Standard international transmission mechanism of productivity shocks predicts a weak endogenous linkage between trade and business cycle synchronization: a problem known as the trade-comovement puzzle. We provide the foundational analysis of the puzzle, pointing to three natural candidate resolutions: (i) financial market frictions, (ii) Greenwood-Hercowitz-Huffman preferences, and (iii) dynamic trade elasticity that is low in the short run but high in the long run. We show the effects of each of these candidate resolutions analytically and evaluate them quantitatively. We find that while (i) and (ii) fall short of the data, (iii) goes a long way toward resolving the puzzle.
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