Are We Approaching an Economic Singularity? Information Technology and the Future of Economic Growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nordhaus, William D.
• 署名单位: Yale University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170105
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 299-332
• 关键词: unbalanced growth; substitution; anatomy; decline; long

摘要

What are the prospects for long-run economic growth? One prominent line of economic thinking is the trend toward stagnation. Stagnationism has a long history in economics, beginning prominently with Malthus and occasionally surfacing in different guises. Prominent themes here are the following: Will economic growth slow and perhaps even reverse under the weight of resource depletion? Will overpopulation and diminishing returns lower living standards? Will unchecked CO2 emissions lead to catastrophic changes in climate and human systems? Have we depleted the store of potential great inventions? Will the aging society lead to diminished innovativeness?