The Fall in Global Fertility: A Quantitative Model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: De Silva, Tiloka; Tenreyro, Silvana
• 署名单位: University Moratuwa; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180296
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 77-109
• 关键词: child-mortality; social norms; population; GROWTH; policies; CHOICE

摘要

Over the past six decades, fertility rates have fallen dramatically in most middle- and low-income countries. To analyze these developments, we study a quantitative model of endogenous human capital and fertility choice, augmented to allow for social norms over family size. We parametrize the model using data on socioeconomic variables and information on funding for population-control policies aimed at affecting social norms and improving access to contraceptives. We simulate the implementation of population-control policies to gauge their contribution to the decline in fertility. We find that policies aimed at altering family-size norms accelerated and strengthened the decline in fertility, which would have otherwise taken place much more gradually.