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作者：Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei; Rojas, Marco
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transfor-mation process. Household-level data from the United States show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantita-tive model to show that US population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is ab...
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作者：Anenberg, Elliot; Ringo, Daniel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Housing demand stimulus produces a multiplier effect by freeing up owners attempting to sell their current home, allowing them to reenter the market as buyers. Exploiting a shock to first-time home buyer demand caused by a cut in mortgage insurance premiums, we find that homeowners buy their next home sooner when the probability of their current home selling increases. We build and calibrate a search model that explains these findings as a result of homeowners avoiding the cost of owning two h...
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作者：Blanco, Andres
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：I study the optimal inflation target in a quantitative menu cost model with a zero lower bound on interest rates. I find that the optimal inflation target is 3.5 percent, which is higher than in models commonly used for monetary policy analysis. Key to this result is that inflation has a small effect on resource misallocation when the model features -firm-level shocks, which are necessary to match the empirical distribution of price changes. A higher inflation target decreases price flexibilit...
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作者：Somale, Mariano
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic model of innovation and international trade in which agents can direct their research efforts to specific goods in the economy. Trade affects the direction of innovation through its impact on the expected market size for an invention, leading to a two-way relationship between trade and technology absent in standard quantitative Ricardian models. Following a theory-consistent strategy to estimate the extent of endogenous adjustments in technology, I find that they ...
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作者：Athreya, Kartik; Eberly, Janice
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Despite increases in the college earnings premium to persistently high levels, investment in college education remains low. We can understand this apparent puzzle by considering the risk of attending college and, in particular, the possibility of failing to graduate. Students with a reasonable probability of completing college already enroll, and for those who do not enroll, the low chance of completion blunts the impact of the rising college premium. In the absence of improved college readine...
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作者：Gali, Jordi
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：I analyze an extension of the New Keynesian model that features overlapping generations of finitely lived agents and (stochastic) transitions to inactivity. In contrast with the standard model, the proposed framework allows for the existence of rational expectations equilibria with asset price bubbles. I study the conditions under which bubble-driven fluctuations may emerge and the type of monetary policy rules that may prevent them. I conclude by discussing some of the model's welfare implica...
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作者：Hendricks, Lutz; Herrington, Christopher; Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Virginia Commonwealth University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We construct a time series of college attendance patterns for the United States and document a reversal: family background was a better predictor of college attendance before World War II, but academic ability was afterward. We construct a model of college choice that explains this reversal. The model's central mechanism is that an exogenous surge of college attendance leads better colleges to be oversubscribed, institute selective admissions, and raise their quality relative to their peers, a...
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作者：McGrattan, Ellen R.; Waddle, Andrea
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Richmond
摘要：Using simulations from a multi-country neoclassical growth model, we analyze several post-Brexit scenarios. First, the United Kingdom unilaterally imposes tighter restrictions on FDI and trade from other EU nations. Second, the European Uunion retaliates and imposes the same restrictions on the United Kingdom. Finally, the United Kingdom reduces restrictions on other nations during the post-Brexit transition. Model predictions depend crucially on the policy response of multinationals' investme...
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作者：Camous, Antoine; Cooper, Russell
作者单位：University of Mannheim; European University Institute; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：The valuation of government debt is subject to strategic uncertainty. Pessimistic lenders, fearing default, bid down the price of debt, leaving a government with a higher debt burden. This increases the likelihood of default, thus confirming the pessimism of lenders. Can monetary interventions mitigate debt fragility? With one-period commitment to a state-contingent policy, the monetary authority can indeed overcome strategic uncertainty. Under discretion, debt-fragility remains unless reputat...
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作者：He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model al...
