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作者：Besley, Timothy; Mueller, Hannes
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR); Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：This paper studies the consequences of predation when firms deploy guard labor as a means of protecting themselves. We build a simple model and combine it with. data for 144 countries from the World Bank enterprise surveys, which ask about firm-level experiences with predation and spending on protection. We use the model to estimate the output loss caused by the misallocation of labor across firms and from production to protection. The loss due to protection effort is substantial and patterns ...
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作者：Deaton, Angus; Aten, Bettina
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Purchasing power parity exchange rates, or PPPs, are price indexes that summarize prices in each country relative to a numeraire country, typically the United States. These numbers are used to compare living standards across countries, by academics in studies of economic growth, particularly through. the Penn World Table, by the World Bank to construct measures of global poverty, by the European Union to redistribute resources, and by the international development community to draw attention t...
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作者：Tenreyro, Silvana; Thwaites, Gregory
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Bank of England
摘要：We investigate how the response of the US economy to monetary policy shocks depends on the state of the business cycle. The effects of monetary policy are less powerful in recessions, especially for durables expenditure and business investment. The asymmetry relates to how fast the economy is growing, rather than to the level of resource utilization. There is some evidence that fiscal policy has counteracted monetary policy in recessions but reinforced it in booms. We also find evidence that c...
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作者：Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon; Liu, Miao
作者单位：Columbia University; Columbia University; University of Chicago
摘要：China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In cont...
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作者：Hattori, Masazumi; Schrimpf, Andreas; Sushko, Vladyslav
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
摘要：We examine the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on stock market tail risk and risks of extreme interest rate movements. We find that UMP announcements substantially reduced option-implied equity market tail risks and interest rate risks. Most of the impact derives from forward guidance rather than asset purchase announcements. Communication about the future path of policy rates reduced volatility expectations of long-term rates and the associated risk premia. The reaction of equi...
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作者：Kraay, Aart
摘要：I use a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. Loans from official creditors typically finance multiyear public spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loa...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Kalantzis, Yannick
作者单位：University of Lausanne; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：Motivated by the Chinese experience, we analyze an economy where the central bank has access to international capital markets, but the private sector does not. The central bank is modeled as a Ramsey planner who can choose the domestic interest rate and the level of international reserves. Consumers are credit-constrained as in Woodford (1990). We find that a rapidly growing economy has a higher welfare without capital mobility. In the Chinese context, we argue that the domestic interest rate ...
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作者：Athreya, Kartik; Tam, Xuan S.; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Cambridge; University of Virginia
摘要：Important changes have occurred in unsecured credit markets over the past three decades. Most prominently, there have been large increases in aggregate consumer debt, the personal bankruptcy rate, the size of bankruptcies, the dispersion of interest rates paid by borrowers, and the relative discount received by those with good credit ratings. We find that improvements in information available to lenders on household-level costs of bankruptcy can account for a significant fraction of what has b...
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作者：Werker, Eric; Ahmed, Faisal Z.; Cohen, Charles
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago
摘要：We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, national accounts, and balance of payments. Aid affects most components of GDP though it has no statistically identifiable impact on prices or economic growth. Much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported nonca...
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作者：Lemoine, Derek
作者单位：University of Arizona
摘要：Generalizing models of directed technical change, I show that complementarities between innovations and factors of production (here, energy resources) can drive transitions away from a dominant sector. In a calibrated numerical implementation, the economy gradually transitions energy supply from coal to gas and then to renewable energy, even in the absence of policy. The welfare -maximizing tax on carbon emissions is J -shaped, immediately redirects most research to renewables, and rapidly tra...
