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作者：Pasten, Ernesto; Schoenle, Raphael; Weber, Michael
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Brandeis University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the role of heterogeneity in nominal price rigidity for aggregate fluctuations in a model with sectoral productivity shocks. Theoretically , sectoral heterogeneity in the pricing friction has an ambiguous effect on GDP and aggregate price volatility. Quantitatively , ( i ) GDP volatility is amplified when the friction is heterogeneous rather than homogeneous; ( ii ) sectoral shocks can jointly rationalize the volatility of sectoral prices , aggregate prices , and GDP , unlike aggregat...
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作者：Bilk, Alexander; Blandin, Adam; Mertens, Karel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Vanderbilt University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three-quar-ters of this increase reflects the adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time postpandemic compared to prepandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays w...
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作者：Coulibaly, Louphou
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper proposes a parsimonious theory explaining the cyclicality of monetary policy in emerging countries in a model where access to foreign financing depends on the real exchange rate and the govern-ment lacks commitment. The discretionary monetary policy is pro-cyclical to mitigate balance sheet effects originating from exchange rate depreciations during sudden stops. Committing to an inflation targeting regime is found to increase social welfare and reduce the frequency of financial cri...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Weber, Henning
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We derive closed-form expressions for the optimal inflation target under Calvo and menu-cost frictions in a model featuring a prod-uct life cycle and multiple sources of heterogeneity across goods. We show that both frictions deliver the same optimal target and how it can be estimated from observed trends in relative prices. Using micro price data underlying the CPI in the United Kingdom, we document that relative prices fall over the product lifetime in most expenditure items. This causes the...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Romer, Paul; Islam, Asif M.; Samaniego, Roberto
作者单位：George Washington University; The World Bank
摘要：We (i) study wage-experience profiles and obtain measures of returns to potential work experience using data from about 24 million individuals in 1,084 surveys and census samples across 145 countries; (ii) show that workers in developed countries accumulate twice as much human capital at work as those in developing countries; (iii) use a simple accounting framework to find that the contribution of work experience and education to human capital accumulation and economic development might be equ...
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作者：Moschini, Emily G.
作者单位：William & Mary
摘要：I examine the role of family structure and childcare subsidies in child skill accumulation. I establish empirically that skill accumulation is more responsive to childcare price for one-parent families than for two-parent families. I analyze the effects of childcare subsidies in a model featuring endogenous family formation, parental altruism, and a baseline subsidy resembling that of the United States. I find that eliminating this subsidy generates welfare losses of 1.63 percent of lifetime c...
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作者：Gortz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of Glasgow; University of Oxford
摘要：We examine the dynamic effects of TFP news shocks in the context of frictions in financial markets. We document two new facts. First, a shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in credit spread indicators along with a robust improvement in credit supply indi-cators. Second, we establish a tight link between TFP news shocks and shocks that explain the majority of un-forecastable movements in credit spread indicators. A DSGE model enriched with a financial sector of the Gertler-Kiyota...
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作者：Kindermann, Fabian; Krueger, Dirk
作者单位：University of Regensburg; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tilburg University; University of Regensburg; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax...
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作者：Beaudry, Paul; Willems, Tim
作者单位：Bank of Canada; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach-exploiting randomness in the country allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document that IMF mission chiefs differ in their individual degrees of forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental variation in the degree of forecast optimism at the country level...
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作者：Rognlie, Matthew; Shleifer, Andrei; Simsek, Alp
作者单位：Northwestern University; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We present a model of investment hangover motivated by the Great Recession. Overbuilding of durable capital such as housing requires a reallocation of productive resources to other sectors, which is facilitated by a reduction in the interest rate. When monetary policy is constrained, overbuilding induces a demand-driven recession with limited reallocation and low output. Investment in other capital initially declines due to low demand, but it later booms and induces an asymmetric recovery in w...
