The Propagation of Demand Shocks through Housing Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Anenberg, Elliot; Ringo, Daniel
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200037
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 481-507
• 关键词: vacancy; search

摘要

Housing demand stimulus produces a multiplier effect by freeing up owners attempting to sell their current home, allowing them to reenter the market as buyers. Exploiting a shock to first-time home buyer demand caused by a cut in mortgage insurance premiums, we find that homeowners buy their next home sooner when the probability of their current home selling increases. We build and calibrate a search model that explains these findings as a result of homeowners avoiding the cost of owning two homes simultaneously. Simulations demonstrate that stimulus to home buying generates a substantial multiplier effect, particularly in cold markets.