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作者：Reis, Ricardo
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky information as a laboratory to study monetary policy. It characterizes the model's predictions for macro dynamics and optimal policy at prior parameters, and then uses data on five US macroeconomic series to update the parameters and provide an estimated model that can be used for policy analysis. The model answers a few policy questions. How does sticky information affect optimal monetary policy? What is the opt...
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作者：Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：While macroeconomics is often thought of as a deeply divided field, with less of a shared core and correspondingly less cumulative progress than other areas of economics, in fact, there are fewer fundamental disagreements among macroeconomists now than in past decades. This is due to important progress in resolving seemingly intractable debates. In this paper, I review some of those debates and outline important elements of the new synthesis in macroeconomic theory. I discusses the extent to w...
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作者：Chi, Chun-che; Schmitt-grohe, Stephanie; Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：A central prediction of open economy models with a pecuniary externality due to a collateral constraint is that the unregulated economy overborrows relative to what occurs under optimal policy. A maintained assumption in this literature is that households borrow directly from foreign lenders. This paper shows that if foreign lending is intermediated by domestic banks and the government can pay interest on bank reserves and impose capital controls, the unregulated economy underborrows. The opti...
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作者：Auerbach, Alan J.; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Murphy, Daniel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Virginia
摘要：How do demand shocks affect the economy? We exploit detailed data on US defense spending to examine a large set of outcome variables in response to well-identified local demand shocks, jointly exam-ining new outcomes (e.g., firm entry and housing rents) and other key macroeconomic outcomes and elasticities that previously have been estimated separately or in settings with weaker identification.We find that government spending crowds in employment, firm entry,private consumption, and labor prod...
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作者：Deng, Minjie
作者单位：Simon Fraser University
摘要：Income inequality and worker migration significantly affect sovereign default risk . Governments often impose progressive taxes to reduce inequality , which redistribute income but discourage labor supply and induce emigration . Reduced labor supply and a smaller high -income workforce erode the current and future tax base , reducing government's ability to repay debt . I develop a sovereign default model with endogenous nonlinear taxation and heterogeneous labor to quantify this effect . In t...
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作者：Zabek, Mike
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：Someone who lives in an economically depressed place was probably born there. And having workers with local ties who prefer to live in their birthplaces leads to smaller migration responses in depressed places. Smaller migration responses lead to lower real incomes and make incomes more volatile , a form of hysteresis. Local ties can also persist for generations. Subsidies to economically depressed places cause smaller distortions , because few people want to move to depressed places. Finally ...
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作者：Malmendier, Ulrike; Shen, Leslie Sheng
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We show that prior lifetime experiences can scar consumers. Consumers who have lived through times of unemployment exhibit persistent pessimism about their future financial situation and spend significantly less years later , controlling for income , employment , and other life -cycle consumption factors. Due to their experience -induced frugality , scarred consumers build up more wealth. We use a stochastic life -cycle model to show that financial constraints and traditional models of income ...
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作者：Morales-Jimenez, Camilo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I propose a new mechanism for sluggish wages based on workers' noisy information about the state of the economy. Wages do not respond immediately to a positive aggregate shock because workers do not (yet) have enough information to demand higher wages. The model is robust to two major criticisms of existing theories of sluggish wages and volatile unemployment, namely, that wages are flexible for new hires and the flow opportunity cost of employment (FOCE) is pro-cyclicality. The model generate...
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作者：Abel, Joshua; Fuster, Andreas
作者单位：Analysis Group Inc.; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We use quasi-random access to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify the causal effect of refinancing into a lower-rate mortgage on borrower balance sheet outcomes. Refinancing substantially reduces borrower default rates on mortgages and other debt. Refinancing also causes borrowers to expand their use of debt instruments, such as auto loans, home equity lines, and other consumer debts that are proxies for spending. Borrowers that appear more constrained ex ante grow these d...
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作者：Jin, Keyu; Li, Nan
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper documents new facts about the behavior of capital- and labor-intensive goods over the business cycle and also identifies a mechanism that generates international investment co-movement through shifting compositional changes of production and trade across sectors. Our model's quantitative predictions not only match aggregate and sectoral statistics but also generate empirically plausible sectoral composition effects. Finally, we show that essential segments of the transmission proces...
