The Impact of Brexit on Foreign Investment and Production

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McGrattan, Ellen R.; Waddle, Andrea
• 署名单位: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Richmond
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170399
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 76-103
• 关键词: macroeconomic impact

摘要

Using simulations from a multi-country neoclassical growth model, we analyze several post-Brexit scenarios. First, the United Kingdom unilaterally imposes tighter restrictions on FDI and trade from other EU nations. Second, the European Uunion retaliates and imposes the same restrictions on the United Kingdom. Finally, the United Kingdom reduces restrictions on other nations during the post-Brexit transition. Model predictions depend crucially on the policy response of multinationals' investment in technology capital, accumulated know-how from investments in R&D, brands, and organizations used simultaneously in their domestic and foreign operations.