Population Aging and Structural Transformations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei; Rojas, Marco
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Central Bank of Chile
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200371
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 479-498
• 关键词: growth; income; preferences; INEQUALITY; MODEL; LIFE; rise

摘要

We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transfor-mation process. Household-level data from the United States show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantita-tive model to show that US population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is about the same size as the contribution of real income growth and about half as large as that of changes in relative prices. (JEL D12, E21, E23, J11, J14)