Risk, the College Premium, and Aggregate Human Capital Investment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Athreya, Kartik; Eberly, Janice
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160396
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 168-213
• 关键词: general equilibrium-model; credit constraints; borrowing constraints; option value; life-cycle; returns; uncertainty; education; selection; EVOLUTION

摘要

Despite increases in the college earnings premium to persistently high levels, investment in college education remains low. We can understand this apparent puzzle by considering the risk of attending college and, in particular, the possibility of failing to graduate. Students with a reasonable probability of completing college already enroll, and for those who do not enroll, the low chance of completion blunts the impact of the rising college premium. In the absence of improved college readiness, our quantitative results suggest that continuing long-standing trends in skill-biased technological change can be expected primarily to increase earnings inequality rather than college attainment.