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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Benhima, Kenza; Poilly, Celine
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); University of Lausanne; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：In the aftermath of the US financial crisis, both a sharp drop in employment and a surge in corporate cash have been observed. In this paper, based on US data, we argue that the negative relationship between the corporate cash ratio and employment is systematic, both over time and across firms. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model where heterogenous firms need cash and external liquid funds in their production process. We analyze the dynamic impact of aggregate shocks and the cross-f...
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作者：Coles, Melvyn G.; Kelishomi, Ali Moghaddasi
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Warwick
摘要：Because the data show that market tightness is not orthogonal to unemployment, this paper identifies the many empirical difficulties caused by adopting the free entry of vacancies assumption in the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides (DMP) framework. Relaxing the free entry assumption and using Simulated Method of Moments (SMM) finds the vacancy creation process is less than infinitely elastic. Because a recession-leading job separation shock then causes vacancies to fall as unemployment increases, t...
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作者：Buera, Francisco J.; Shin, Yongseok
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Why doesn't capital flow into fast-growing countries? Using a model with heterogeneous producers and underdeveloped domestic financial markets, we explain the joint dynamics of total factor productivity (TFP) and capital flows. When a large-scale economic reform removes preexisting idiosyncratic distortions in a small open economy, its TFP rises, driven by efficient reallocation of economic resources. At the same time, because of the domestic financial frictions, saving rates surge but investm...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Virginia
摘要：While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, output, consumption, and investment declined by similar magnitudes around the globe. Given the partial integration of both goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? To address this question, we develop a -two-country model allowing for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized acros...
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作者：Krause, Michael U.; Moyen, Stephane
作者单位：University of Cologne; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：What are the effects of a higher central bank inflation target on the burden of real public debt? Several recent proposals have suggested that even a moderate increase in the inflation target can have a pronounced effect on real public debt. We consider this question in a New Keynesian model with a maturity structure of public debt and an imperfectly observed inflation target. We find that moderate changes in the inflation target only have significant effects on real public debt if they are es...
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作者：Slavtchev, Viktor; Wiederhold, Simon
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：Governments purchase everything from airplanes to zucchini. This paper investigates the role of the technological content of government procurement in innovation. In a theoretical model, we first show that a shift in the composition of public purchases toward high-tech products translates into higher economy-wide returns to innovation, leading to an increase in the aggregate level of private R&D. Using unique data on federal procurement in US states and performing panel fixed-effects estimatio...
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作者：Lansing, Kevin J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：This paper develops a production-based asset pricing model with two types of agents and concentrated ownership of physical capital. A temporary but persistent distribution shock causes the income share of capital owners to fluctuate in a procyclical manner, consistent with US data. The concentrated ownership model significantly magnifies the equity risk premium relative to a representative-agent model because the capital owners' consumption is more-strongly linked to volatile dividends from eq...
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作者：Mason, J. W.; Jayadev, Arjun
作者单位：Roosevelt University; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Azim Premji Foundation; Azim Premji University Bengaluru
摘要：The evolution of debt-income ratios over time depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates, independent of any changes in borrowing. We examine the effect of these Fisher dynamics on household debt-income ratios in the United States over the period 1929-2011. Adapting a standard decomposition of public debt to household sector debt, we show that these factors explain, in accounting terms, a large fraction of the changes in household debt-income ratios observed historically. More rec...
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作者：Giuliano, Paola; Mishra, Prachi; Spilimbergo, Antonio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Empirical evidence on the relationship between democracy and economic reforms is limited to few reforms, countries, and years. This paper studies the effect of democracy on the adoption of economic reforms using a new dataset on reforms in the financial, capital and banking sectors, product markets, agriculture, and trade for 150 countries over the period 1960-2004. Democracy has a positive and significant impact on the adoption of economic reforms, but there is scarce evidence that economic r...
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作者：Hamilton, James D.; Pruitt, Seth; Borger, Scott
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We introduce a novel method for estimating a monetary policy rule using macroeconomic news. We estimate directly the policy rule agents use to form their expectations by linking news' effects on forecasts of both economic conditions and monetary policy. Evidence between 1994 and 2007 indicates that the market-perceived Federal Reserve policy rule changed: the output response vanished, and the inflation response path became more gradual but larger in long-run magnitude. These response coefficie...
