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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Tesar, Linda L.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：This paper reexamines the evidence on the border effect. We argue that if there is cross-country heterogeneity in the distribution of within-country price differentials, there is no clear benchmark from which to gauge the effect of a border. In the absence of a structural model or a (natural) experiment, it is impossible to separate the border effect from the effect of trading with a country with a different distribution of prices. We show that the border effect identified by Engel and Rogers ...
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作者：Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
摘要：This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers'expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across ...
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作者：Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Earnings are riskier and more unequal for households born in the 1960s and 1980s than for those born in the 1940s. Despite improvements in financial conditions, younger generations are less likely to be living in their own homes than older generations at the same age. By using a life cycle model with housing and portfolio choice that includes flexible earnings risk and aggregate asset price risk, I show that changes in earnings dynamics account for a large part of the reduction in homeownershi...
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作者：Benigno, Gianluca; Chen, Huigang; Otrok, Christopher; Rebucci, Alessandro; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Facebook Inc; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Johns Hopkins University; University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：There is a new and now large literature analyzing government poli-cies for financial stability based on models with endogenous borrow-ing constraints. These normative analyses build upon the concept of constrained efficient allocation where the social planner is con-strained by the same borrowing limit that agents face. In this paper, we show that there exists at least one set of tools implementing the constrained efficient allocation that can also be used by a Ramsey planner to replicate an u...
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作者：Graves, Sebastian
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：The responsiveness of job creation to shocks is procyclical, while the responsiveness of job destruction is countercyclical. This new find-ing can be explained by a heterogeneous-firm model in which hiring costs lead to lumpy employment adjustment. The model predicts that policies that aim to stimulate employment by encouraging job cre-ation, such as hiring subsidies, are significantly less effective in reces-sions: these are times when few firms are near their hiring thresholds and many firms...
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作者：Paluszynski, Radoslaw
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：The European debt crisis presents a challenge to our understanding of the relationship between government bond yields and economic fundamentals. I argue that information frictions are an important missing element and support that claim with evidence on the evolution of GDP forecast errors after 2008. I build a quantitative model of sovereign default where output features rare disasters and agents learn about their realizations. Debt crises coincide with economic depressions and develop gradual...
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作者：Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper assesses the presence and importance of the neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates and estimates an empirical and a New Keynesian model driven by stationary and nonstationary monetary and real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases in the nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases in inflation and output. The main finding of the paper is that permanent monetary shocks that increase the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Seoul National University (SNU); Yonsei University
摘要：We consider a matching model of employment with flexible wages for new hires but sticky wages within matches. Unlike most models of sticky wages, we allow effort to respond if wages are too high or too low. In the Mortensen-Pissarides model, employment is not affected by wage stickiness in existing matches. But it is in our model. If wages of matched workers are stuck too high, firms require more effort, lowering the value of additional labor and reducing hiring. We find that effort's response...
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作者：Brinkman, Jeffrey; Coen-Pirani, Daniele; Sieg, Holger
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Many US municipalities have committed to pay retirement benefits to public sector employees but have not saved enough to fulfill these obligations. This paper studies the determinants of municipal pension funding and its implications for intergenerational redistribution using an overlapping generations model. Under perfect capital markets, pension funding choices are fully capitalized into land prices. This neutrality result fails if agents face a binding downpayment constraint in the land mar...
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作者：Herrendorf, Berthold; Schoellman, Todd
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：We document for 13 countries ranging from rich (Canada, United States) to poor (India, Indonesia) that average wages are considerably lower in agriculture than in the other sectors. Moreover, agriculture has less educated workers and lower Mincer returns. We view these findings through. the lens of a multi-sector model in which workers differ in observed and unobserved characteristics and sectors differ in their human-capital intensities. We derive expressions for the implied harriers to the r...
