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作者：Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Kang, Elliot; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya; Toma, Hiroshi; Topalova, Petia
作者单位：New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Yale University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We adopt a data-driven approach to measure trade decoupling over 2015-2023. Countries are classified into three groups according to changes in their data-inferred trade costs with the US and China: those shifting toward the US bloc, those shifting toward the China bloc, and those with no change in alignment. We document that while cross-bloc trade costs rose, they were accompanied by falling within-bloc trade costs, with average trade costs falling marginally in line with global trade resilien...
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作者：Lam, Pak Hung; Lin, Yatang; Peng, Fangyuan; Wang, Jin
作者单位：National Taiwan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Fudan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：The recent decades have witnessed a remarkable surge in machinery imports from China to African economies. Our study examines the causes and local implications of these imports. Notably, we find that China's efforts to decommission excess capacity have been a driving force behind this trend. Chinese city industries that face urgent capacity elimination requirements imposed by the government tend to export machinery equipment to emerging markets, particularly African countries with weaker envir...
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作者：Ali, Nesma; Stiebale, Joel
作者单位：The World Bank; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf
摘要：This paper uses a rich panel dataset of Indian manufacturers to analyze the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic firms. Detailed product-level information on prices and quantities allows us to estimate physical productivity and marginal costs. In line with the previous literature, we find little evidence of horizontal spillovers based on commonly used measures of revenue productivity. In contrast, we measure sizable efficiency gains using measures that are not affected by pri...
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作者：Chen, Kaiji; Huang, Yuxuan; Liu, Xuewen; Lu, Zhikun; Wang, Yong
作者单位：Emory University; University of International Business & Economics; University of Hong Kong; Peking University
摘要：Many emerging economies employ preferential credit policies that target selected sectors. This paper quantifies the implications of such policies for aggregate productivity and welfare. Using Chinese firm-level data from 2009-2020, we first document that sectors with higher markups receive larger credit subsidies and exhibit higher revenue-based productivity. Motivated by these facts, we develop a multi-sector quantitative model with endogenously determined markups and calibrate it to match th...
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作者：Roesch, Marcus; Gerritse, Michiel; Karreman, Bas
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：Do workers in multinational enterprises (MNEs) build stronger CVs? We track the careers of all workers entering the Dutch labor market over the years 2006-2021 and find large, portable wage premia of MNE employment experience. Workers with experience at MNEs instead of domestic firms earn up to 14% higher wages within the MNE, and up to 11% higher wages after moving to another firm. Consistent with a model of MNEs that leverage their employment experience premia, we document that MNEs hire mor...
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作者：Garcia-Schmidt, Mariana
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile
摘要：Central bank policy decisions shape the economy both by influencing market conditions and by affecting expectations. These expectations can be driven by two simultaneous shocks: monetary and information shocks. Identifying the information shock as one with a non-negative effect on expectations, this paper shows that such shocks are highly relevant in emerging markets. In particular, inflation and output forecasts tend to increase in the short run following an unexpected rise in the policy rate...
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作者：Kurmann, Andre; Lale, Etienne; Martin, Julien
作者单位：Drexel University; York University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：We provide the first systematic evidence on the short-run labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code & times; industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Exploiting the high heterogeneity in exposure to Canadian visits, we find that small establishments in the top 1% exposed local-industry markets experienced employment decline...
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作者：Minesso, Massimo Ferrari; Krahnke, Tobias; Mehl, Arnaud; Vansteenkiste, Isabel
作者单位：European Central Bank; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the global impacts of sanctions on central bank assets. We build a database on freezes and seizures of central bank assets spanning 1914-2024. We show that the scale of the freeze on today's Central Bank of Russia's assets is rarely seen in history and that non-belligerent countries have never seized central bank assets to finance reconstruction in a third country in an ongoing war. We propose a three-country DSGE model to understand the global impacts of sanctions on central bank ass...
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作者：Krolikowski, Pawel M.; McCallum, Andrew H.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We study tariffs in a general equilibrium dynamic model with search frictions between heterogeneous exporting producers and importing retailers. We show the model has a unique equilibrium and analytically characterize home unilateral import tariffs that maximize welfare given a passive foreign country. Search frictions add two terms to the standard optimal tariff expression: One lowers tariffs when contact rates are low; another when private export costs exceed social opportunity costs. Search...
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作者：Gurkova, Ekaterina; Helpman, Elhanan; Itskhoki, Oleg
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Trade liberalization triggers substantial within-sector labor reallocation, a pattern captured by heterogeneous-firm trade models. We study transition dynamics of firms and workers response to changes in trade costs, incorporating labor market frictions. Responses vary by productivity: high-productivity exporters expand employment, while lower-productivity firms exit, downsize before exit, or gradually shrink. As a result, jobs with similar initial wages differ ex post, with high-productivity ...
