-
作者：Hur, Sewon; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar; Yom, Zeynep
作者单位：Yonsei University; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Villanova University
摘要：We study optimal bailout policies amidst banking and sovereign crises. Our model features sovereign borrowing with limited commitment, where domestic banks hold government debt and extend credit to the private sector. Bank capital shocks can trigger banking crises, prompting the government to consider extending guarantees over bank assets. This poses a trade-off: Larger bailouts relax financial frictions and increase output, but increase fiscal needs and default risk (creating a 'diabolic loop...
-
作者：de Lucio, Juan; Minguez, Raul; Minondo, Asier; Requena, Francisco
作者单位：University of Deusto; University of Valencia
摘要：The invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 led to large and unprecedented sanctions against Russia. In parallel, many multinational firms voluntarily decided to suspend their activities in Russia. Using Spanish firm-level data, this paper quantifies the impact of trade sanctions and firms' voluntary decisions to suspend activities on exports and imports with Russia. We find that firms' voluntary decisions to suspend activities in Russia contributed to the reduction in exports and imports by 20% ...
-
作者：Ignatenko, Anna
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：Using uniquely detailed data, I document large freight price variation across shipments of similar products transported within the same container on the same route. I rationalize this variation using a trade model that incorporates economies of scale and price discrimination in transportation. I derive each mechanism's distinct policy implications. To distinguish them, I test for the effect of competition on freight price variation specific to price discrimination. Using unexpected water level...
-
作者：Hoang, Trang; Mix, Carter
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We use a general equilibrium dynamic trade model to study the effects of the U.S.-China tariff hikes on the global economy. Our model captures key trade patterns since the tariff hikes, such as the pace of the decline in U.S.-China bilateral trade and the reallocation of global imports from the U.S. toward China. The welfare losses from the tariff hikes are much larger in our dynamic model than implied by static trade models. Expectations about the persistence of the tariff hikes shape aggrega...
-
作者：Ifrim, Adrian; Kollmann, Robert; Pfeiffer, Philipp; Ratto, Marco; Roeger, Werner
作者单位：European Commission Joint Research Centre; EC JRC ISPRA Site; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; KU Leuven
摘要：Since the launch of the euro, the Euro Area has combined weak growth with persistent trade surpluses, a rising trade share, and the absence of a real exchange rate trend. In academic and policy debates, the Euro Area's trade surplus is often viewed as reflecting weak domestic aggregate demand. This paper argues that a purely demand-based view of the trade balance is incomplete. Using an estimated two-region framework, we find that slower productivity growth in the Euro Area has been a major dr...
-
作者：Bao, Yangming; Li, Jie
作者单位：Capital University of Economics & Business
摘要：This paper investigates the role of international air connectivity in shaping regional industrial specialization through its impact on manufacturing firm entry. Leveraging granular data on international airlines originated from China during the 2010s, we construct county-specific foreign market air access measure. To address endogeneity, we employ a shift-share IV strategy that isolates exogenous variations in global air service from local factors. Our findings reveal that counties experiencin...
-
作者：Gong, Robin Kaiji; Li, Yao Amber; Sun, Stephen Teng; Wei, Shang-Jin
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; City University of Hong Kong; City University of Hong Kong; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study provides the first empirical analysis of how access to equity financing affects firm exports, leveraging China's stringent approval system for initial public offerings (IPOs). Our empirical strategy compares the export performance of successful IPO applicants with that of near misses - applicants rejected at the final review meetings. To sharpen identification, we utilize meeting records to exclude rejections citing concerns about future revenue growth or profitability risks, as the...
-
作者：Ding, Guanzu; Fan, Haichao; Li, Rui; Wang, Huanhuan; Xi, Xican
作者单位：East China University of Science and Technology; Fudan University; Fudan University; East China Normal University; Shanghai Institute of International Finance & Economics
摘要：Using household-and firm-level data, we show that reductions in soybean tariffs lowered agricultural labor input and output, and improved agricultural efficiency. The shock induced a large reallocation of low-skilled labor into manufacturing, expanding firms' employment but reducing firm-level productivity, while intensifying competition in urban low-skilled labor markets. Our quantitative analysis implies a small aggregate welfare loss, with substantial heterogeneity across sectors, regions, ...
-
作者：Sun, Ruiqi; Trefler, Daniel
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; University of Toronto; University of Toronto; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：International trade in digital services, including mobile app trade (e.g., Facebook in Frankfurt, Instagram in Istanbul), is large and rapidly growing. Analysing 2015-2020 data on 28,000 mobile apps, we find that AI increases an app's user base threefold, a massive effect. AI's handmaiden is data, including cross-border flows of personal data. Concerned with privacy and national security, policymakers have responded with thousands of conflicting data regulations, ranging from guaranteeing free...
-
作者：Cheung, T. Terry; Yang, Han
作者单位：Academia Sinica - Taiwan
摘要：We investigate how transportation networks influence agricultural technology adoption and structural transformation. Our empirical results show that improved transport networks lower non-labor input prices relative to wages and promote the adoption of more productive laborsaving technologies. These changes increase agricultural labor productivity and facilitate structural transformation. In our calibrated model, transportation improvements alone account for a 2.2-2.5 percentage-point decline i...
