2026

最新文章

• Global production networks and imperfect competition AI翻译
  作者：Huang, Hanwei; Manova, Kalina; Perello, Oscar; Pisch, Frank
  作者单位：City University of Hong Kong; University of London; University College London; Inter-American Development Bank; Technical University of Darmstadt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Tsinghua University; University of St Gallen
  摘要：How do production networks and market structure interact to shape the effects of trade and competition policy? We develop a model with two-sided firm heterogeneity, matching frictions, and imperfect supplier competition. More productive buyers match with more suppliers, inducing tougher supplier competition, lower input costs, and higher profits. Entry upstream thus benefits high-productivity buyers, while lower trade or matching costs favor mid-productivity buyers. Empirical evidence confirms...
• Spatial linkages and the uneven effects of a commodity boom AI翻译
  作者：Benguria, Felipe; Saffie, Felipe; Zhang, Shihangyin
  作者单位：University of Kentucky; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; International Monetary Fund
  摘要：We study the uneven effects of a commodity cycle, documenting its impact across workers based on their skill level and the region where they live. To this end, we develop a dynamic quantitative model of a multi-region economy featuring spatial linkages (interregional trade and migration) and downward wage rigidity. Empirically, we focus on Brazil's experience during the commodity boom of the 2000s and subsequent bust of the 2010s. The skill premium falls during the boom, while the extent of do...
• Trade fragmentation, inflationary pressures and monetary policy AI翻译
  作者：Ambrosino, Ludovica; Chan, Jenny; Tenreyro, Silvana
  作者单位：University of London; London Business School; Bank of England; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
  摘要：How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To address these questions, we develop a two-sector, small open-economy model that features imperfect international risk-sharing and household heterogeneity, capturing both the supply-side and demand-side effects of fragmentation. In the model, fragmentation takes the form of import-price increases or a decline in tradable-sector productivity. The sign and ...
• The global transmission of US monetary policy☆ AI翻译
  作者：Degasperi, Riccardo; Hong, Seokki Simon; Ricco, Giovanni
  作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Bank of England; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris
  摘要：Fed's decisions affect global economic conditions, with tightenings leading to widespread recessionary effects. Using a state-of-the-art identification strategy, a dataset covering 30 economies, and techniques for constructing empirical counterfactuals, we show that commodity and oil prices play a critical role in propagating US monetary policy to global headline inflation, generating predominantly deflationary effects. We refer to this novel mechanism as the 'commodity price channel' of US mo...
• A swing-state theorem, with evidence AI翻译
  作者：Ma, Xiangjun; McLaren, John; Chalak, Karim
  作者单位：Liaoning University; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Manchester
  摘要：We study the effects of local partisanship in a model of electoral competition. Voters care about policy, but they also care about the identity of the party in power, with most states biassed toward one party or the other (i.e., 'red' or 'blue'). We show that electoral competition leads to maximization of welfare with an extra weight on citizens of the 'swing state:' the one that is not biassed toward either party. We show empirically that the US tariff structure is biassed toward swing-state ...
• Single and attractive: Uniqueness and stability of economic equilibria under monotonicity assumptions AI翻译
  作者：Bifulco, Patrizio; Gluck, Jochen; Krebs, Oliver; Kukharskyy, Bohdan
  作者单位：Fern University Hagen; University of Wuppertal; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
  摘要：This paper characterizes equilibrium properties of a broad class of economic models that allow multiple heterogeneous agents to interact in heterogeneous ways across several markets. Our key contribution is a new theorem that provides sufficient conditions for uniqueness, attractivity, and stability of solutions of non-linear equation systems. To illustrate the applicability of our theorem, we characterize the general equilibrium properties of an extended version of the universal gravity frame...
• Melitz meets Lewis: The impacts of roads on structural transformation and businesses AI翻译
  作者：Kaboski, Joseph P.; Lu, Will Jianyu; Qian, Wei; Ren, Lixia
  作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Central Bank of Chile; Haverford College; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
  摘要：This paper examines the impact of roads on structural transformation and business composition both empirically and theoretically. Empirically, we find that major highway programs in India and China led to declines in the number of businesses where structural transformation is weak, and increases where it is strong. We develop a two-sector model of regional trade with endogenous firm entry that highlights two opposing forces. Ceteris paribus, lower trade costs in non-agriculture lead to fewer f...
• Preferred habitats and timing in the world's safe asset AI翻译
  作者：Tabova, Alexandra; Warnock, Francis E.
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：We build a comprehensive security-level dataset on the size, flows, coupon payments, and returns of foreign and U.S. investors' Treasury portfolios. The dataset shows that the composition of investors' Treasury portfolios differs: Private U.S. and private foreign investors hold longer-duration, higher-return Treasuries, whereas foreign governments hold shorter-duration, lower-return Treasuries. Thus, all else equal, private investors should earn higher returns than foreign governments. But all...
• The causal effects of commodity shocks AI翻译
  作者：Curatola-Melo, Alisson; Guimaraes, Bernardo
  作者单位：Central Bank of Brazil; Getulio Vargas Foundation
  摘要：This paper disentangles the causal effects of commodity price movements on emerging market indicators from those driven by correlated external factors, such as global growth expectations and financial conditions. We employ an identification-through-heteroskedasticity approach using USDA Grain Stock reports, which have an exogenous impact on soybean, corn, and wheat prices. Our findings show that the causal effects of grain price shocks on default risk, stock indexes, and exchange rates are typ...
• Historical military conflict, current trade tensions, and global supply chains AI翻译
  作者：Hu, Yichuan; Li, Chang; Lin, Shu
  作者单位：Tongji University; East China Normal University; Chinese University of Hong Kong
  摘要：We study how two significant conflicts between China and the U.S.-the Korean War and the current trade war-affect global supply chains. Using hand-collected data, we find that the death toll from the Korean War in a chairperson's city of origin strongly influences Chinese firms' selection of U.S. suppliers today. Moreover, the current trade tensions reactivate memories of wartime trauma, significantly amplifying their negative effects. We identify two key mechanisms driving this change: Chines...