Tapping into excess capacity: Chinese machinery exports and African industrialization

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lam, Pak Hung; Lin, Yatang; Peng, Fangyuan; Wang, Jin
• 署名单位: National Taiwan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Fudan University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2026.104329
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: import competition; trade liberalization; developing-countries; intermediate inputs; level productivity; Labor Adjustment; GROWTH; EMPLOYMENT; INNOVATION; IMPACT

摘要

The recent decades have witnessed a remarkable surge in machinery imports from China to African economies. Our study examines the causes and local implications of these imports. Notably, we find that China's efforts to decommission excess capacity have been a driving force behind this trend. Chinese city industries that face urgent capacity elimination requirements imposed by the government tend to export machinery equipment to emerging markets, particularly African countries with weaker environmental regulations and abundant resources. By using instrumental variables based on China's annual lists of eliminated capacity, we find mixed effects of machinery imports on African economies. They increase output and value added in recipient industries that use the imported machinery, but have limited effects on employment and intersectoral linkages. Nevertheless, labor markets in affected regions reallocate away from agriculture toward both high-skilled and low-skilled occupations. These regions also experience higher pollution levels and increased nighttime light intensity.